Building a world of
resilient communities.

MAIN LIST

 

New USGS Marcellus Shale anaylsis drastically cuts DOE estimates

This week the USGS released a new assessment of gas resources in the Marcellus Shale, Appalachian Basin. The rerport is a reasonable effort by the USGS to sort out some of the wheat from the chaff. The 84 Tcf technically recoverable undiscovered resource for the Marcellus is a considerable downgrade from the 262 Tcf technically recoverable resource reported by NETL of the DOE in 2009. Others have been using numbers for the Marcellus in the mid-400’s of Tcf – see for example Engelder (2009) who claims the Marcellus has 489 Tcf of P50 technically recoverable resources.

This number fits with that of Powers, who was citing about 60 Tcf. 84 Tcf, which of course, is less than four years of US consumption. And the question is – how long would it take to produce it??? – and at what environmental costs??? As with all USGS estimates this is a probabilistic estimate, with 84 Tcf being a P50 estimate (ie. a 50% chance of having at least 84 Tcf). The P95 number is 43 Tcf (ie. a 95% chance of having at least 43 Tcf). So, as always with undiscovered resource estimates, roll the dice and take your chances – ARE YOU FEELING LUCKY?

I welcome this from the USGS as it puts a bit more rigor into the hype on the Marcellus and radically reduces some of the numbers floating around – a good effort with a generous amount of CYA factored in by the USGS given its probabilistic, undiscovered, nature.

See Geologists Sharply Cut Estimate of Shale Gas

Also David Hughe's report Will Natural Gas Fuel America in the 21st Century?

What do you think? Leave a comment below.

Sign up for regular Resilience bulletins direct to your email.

Take action!  

Find out more about Community Resilience. See our COMMUNITIES page
Start your own projects. See our RESOURCES page.
Help build resilience. DONATE NOW.

 

This is a community site and the discussion is moderated. The rules in brief: no personal abuse and no climate denial. Complete Guidelines.


The Great Burning   

What will we do when the Great Burning comes to an end?

The Renewable Revolution

Don’t hold your breath, but future historians may look back on 2015 as …

Peak Oil Notes - Apr 16

Oil prices surged this week.

Putting the Real Story of Energy and the Economy Together

 What is the real story of energy and the economy? We hear two …

Fracking Increases Radon Gas Hazard, US Study Finds

Another major U.S. health study has found that the hydraulic fracking of …

How Conservative Texas Took The Lead in U.S. Wind Power

Innovative government policies have helped propel Texas into the forefront …

The Collapse phenomenon

Michael Ruppert's last book, first starring film role and ascendancy to the …