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Oil supply emergencies: An annotated bibliography

The literature on Liquid Fuel Emergencies is considerable, dating back to rationing during World War Two. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) in the USA did some exceptional work for two decades (1975- 1994). Unfortunately, there have been relatively few studies during the past 15 years, with the notable exceptions of the comprehensive analysis by Alan Smart for the Government of Australia and Kathy Leotta's research in the USA.

from International Energy Agency

Jones, Richard H., Energy Security: the IEA Perspective, presentation at Turkish War College, April 28, 2009, 15 pgs with slides.

Oil Supply Security, 2007, 382 pgs.

Saving Oil in a Hurry, 2005, 164 pgs.

Noland, Bob, Saving Oil in a Hurry (Workshop on Managing Oil Demand in Transport), Imperial College, 2005 (slides)

from UK

This link provides background information on the UK Civil Contingencies Act (2004)

The UK ministry website provides some information on their plans for downstream fuel emergencies.

Peck, Helen, Resilience in the Food Chain, Defra, July 2006, 171 pgs. Dr. Peck’s analysis is very thorough (171 pages) and although her primary focus is on food supply, there is much that is relevant. The information which is most relevant to fuel emergencies may be located fairly readily by scanning her detailed List of Contents.

PCT Fuel Shortage Plan, Jan. 2009, 17 pgs.

A review of three UK plans for fuel emergencies was posted at Energy Bulletin in July, 2009:

from USA

Bamberger, Robert, The Strategic Petroleum Reserve: History, Perspectives and Issues, September 2008, 15 pgs.

Leotta, Kathy, “Implementing the Most Effective Transportation Demand Management (TDM) Strategies to Quickly Reduce Oil Consumption”, Jan. 2007, 118 pgs. This link introduces Ms. Leotta’s insightful study and connects to the complete report.

Clawson, Patrick and Simon Henderson, Reducing Vulnerability to Middle East Energy Shocks: A Key Element in Strengthening U.S. Energy Security, Nov 2005, 39 pgs.

Horwich, George, Disasters and Market Response, Cato Journal, Vol. 9 No. 3 (Winter 1990), 25 pgs. In this paper, Horwich identifies and analyzes the pitfalls of government intervention during the oil-supply disruptions of the 1970s and 1980s.

Hubbard, R. G. and R. J. Weiner, Oil Supply Shocks and International Coordination, European Economic Review 30 (1986) p. 91-106.

Leiby, Paul, and D. Bowman, The Value of Expanded SPR Drawdown Capability, ORNL, October 2000, 67 pgs.

Nevada State Office of Energy, Preliminary Energy Supply Disruption Tracking Process Plan, Aug. 13, 2010, 17 pgs.

Office of Technology Assessment, U.S. Vulnerability to an Oil Import Curtailment, September 1984, 158 pgs.

SAFE, Oil Shockwave: Oil Crisis Executive Simulation (June 2005). This top-level Washington exercise examined the potential effects of the sudden loss of 4% of global oil production. Participants included Robert Gates, James Woolsey and Gen. P.X. Kelley (USMC, Ret).

Simmons, Matthew, slide presentation to the AON Annual Energy Insurance Symposium, January 14, 2010 in Houston. Although Simmons’ presentation does not focus on oil supply emergencies, it provides an insightful examination of energy security issues from a risk management perspective.

U.S. Dept. of Energy, Standby Gasoline Rationing Plan, June 1980, 129 pgs.

Documents from the U.S. Congressional Budget Office

Rethinking Emergency Energy Policy, Dec. 1994, 64 pgs.

Managing Oil Disruptions: Issues and Policy Options, Sept. 1981, 86 pgs. A summary (with link to complete study) is available here.

Documents from the U.S. Government Accountability Office

a. Reports:

Energy Security: Evaluating U.S. Vulnerability to Oil Supply Disruptions and Options for Mitigating Their Effects, December 1996, 120 pgs.

Analysis of Studies on Economic Consequences of an Oil Import Tariff, June 1989, 35 pgs.

The United States Remains Unprepared for Oil Import Disruptions (2 Volumes), Sept. 29, 1981, 314 pgs.

Transportation Contingency Plans For Future Gas Shortages Will Not Meet Commuter Needs, July, 1981, 43 pgs.

Gasoline Allocation: A Chaotic Program in Need of Overhaul, April 1980, 96 pgs.

b. Statements:

Statement of Frank Rusco, SPR: Issues Regarding the Inclusion of Refined Petroleum Products as Part of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, May, 2009, 11 pgs.

Statement of Donald. Z. Forcier on Federal Preparedness for Oil Import Disruptions, Feb. 2, 1982, 17 pgs.

Statement of J. Dexter Peach on Standby Energy Conservation and Gasoline Rationing Plans, March 26, 1979, 27 pgs.

from Asia

Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre, Energy Security Initiative: Emergency Oil Stocks as an Option to Respond to Oil Supply Disruptions, 2002, 37 pgs.

from Australia

Smart, Alan, An Assessment of Australia’s Liquid Fuels Vulnerability, ACIL Tasman, November 2008, 180 pgs. Alan Smart and his team also did a very thorough review of Australia’s Liquid Fuel Emergency Act, with the entire set of documents totaling almost 400 pages. Their final report (Dec. 04, 88 pgs) is unfortunately no longer available.

Australian Institute of Petroleum, Maintaining Supply Reliability in Australia, April 2008, 19 pgs.

from New Zealand

MED, Oil Emergency Response Strategy, July 2008, 24 pgs.

MED, Discussion Paper: Options for Government Response to an Oil Supply Disruption, September 2006, 31 pgs.

from Canada

Energy Supplies Emergency Act, 1985.

Hay, John B., Who Does What? Critical Energy Infrastructure Protection in the Canadian Government, CCISS, 2006, 31 pgs.

Munroe, Rick, Fuel Emergency part 2 (contains link to part 1).

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