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ODAC Newsletter - Nov 5

Welcome to the ODAC Newsletter, a weekly roundup from the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, the UK registered charity dedicated to raising awareness of peak oil.

Oil rose to a six-month high of more than $87/barrel as the Federal Reserve embarked on a new round of quantitative easing worth $600bn and Saudi Oil Minister Ali al Naimi raised his target oil price to $70-90 per barrel. Shokri Ghanem, chairman of Libya's National Oil Corporation said the price should be higher still, at around $100/barrel.

The Republicans victory in the mid-term elections is likely to stall any federal attempts to implement climate change legislation. One election battle which didn't go the oil companies' way however was over Prop 23 in California. The defeated proposal would have frozen a 2006 California law pledging the state to reduce its greenhouse gas emission levels back to 1990 levels by 2020, starting in 2012. With potential deadlock on Capitol Hill, any meaningful progress on climate is now only likely to come from State initiatives or regulators such as the Environmental Protection Agency.

Next Tuesday sees the release of this year's World Energy Outlook from the International Energy Agency. A draft seen by the Financial Times features a "new policies scenario" that shows how climate change policy measures, if implemented, could reduce global oil demand and prices compared to their central scenario. In the new policies scenario oil production reaches 99 mb/d in 2035 and costs $113 per barrel, compared to 107 mb/d and $135 in the central scenario. ODAC doubts either production forecast is credible since the central forecast is little changed from last year's WEO, suggesting the model still rests on the highly optimistic assumptions identified by researchers at Uppsala University.

In the UK this week a stand-off appeared to be developing between the oil and gas industry and off-shore wind interests over who gets the rights to the seabed in the North Sea. DECC played down the likelihood of any conflict, but UK Oil & Gas warned that "It would be most unfortunate if individual licensees were forced to resort to legal processes in order to defend the rights granted under their existing petroleum licences". One to watch.

Oil

Oil Trades Near Two-Year High as Dollar Heads for Weekly Decline

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Budget strain not behind higher Saudi oil price view

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IEA fears oil spike if climate pledges fail

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IEA warns Iraq will miss 2017 oil target

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BP ups spill cost estimate by $8 billion as profits dive

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Brazil Petrobras questions BG oil reserve estimate

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BP's Dudley Embraces Deepwater Risk in U.S., Brazil After Spill

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Persian Gulf Lacks Sufficient Supertankers for First Time in Almost a Year

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Opec: Cartel's power set to increase as stocks decline

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Clinton Facing Heat on Oil Sands Pipeline

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Analysis: Pipeline safety delays endanger oil supply, nature

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India's oil demand to jump 40 pc in next 10 yrs: PM

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Coal

BG launches £9bn project to liquify gas from coal

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Nuclear

British mining company in controversial uranium project near Grand Canyon

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Biofuels

Algae for biofuels: Moving from promise to reality, but how fast?

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UK

Oil lobby in legal threat to North Sea wind farms

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Wind farms could be forced out by oil rigs

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Work begins on Europe's largest straw-bale building

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Landlords forced to make homes green

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Biofuel power stations in planning pipeline

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Climate

Prop. 23 battle marks new era in environmental politics

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More Compromise -- or More Confrontation -- on Energy Policy Just Around the Corner for Congress

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Economy

US Fed turns taps back on with $600bn package of QE

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QE2 risks currency wars and the end of dollar hegemony

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