Welcome to the ODAC Newsletter, a weekly roundup from the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, the UK registered charity dedicated to raising awareness of peak oil.
Energy Secretary Chris Huhne has given the strongest indication yet that the coalition government is actually considering the possible impacts of peak oil. “We will have a world where there may be lots of shocks, we may well have oil price rises which are similar to the ones that we had in the 1970s, a doubling”, he told a fringe meeting of the Lib Dem conference. He also told the meeting he had asked DECC to do “some work” on potential impacts — probably a reference to the consultation to which ODAC has submitted a paper. He also referred to “oil shocks to come” during his speech to the main conference. While at no point referring specifically to ‘peak oil’ his language does suggest that government may be waking up to the issue.
Huhne’s speech to the main conference was high on rhetoric, promising the long awaited low carbon revolution. He made it clear to the party that he would approve new nuclear builds despite traditional Lib Dem opposition, and outlined the impending ‘Green Deal’ — a programme to insulate UK housing stock by using energy savings from insulation measures to compensate companies which meet the upfront cost of making upgrades. But there was no hint on whether the government plans to slash ‘feed in tariffs‘ for renewable electricity and the proposed renewable heat tariff, as reported recently.
On the subject of the oil price, Canadian economist Jeff Rubin claimed that even the current price is high enough to prevent the US economy from recovering. “The age of cheap oil is over”, he wrote in the Globe & Mail, “and that means recalibrating the speed limit for the world’s largest oil-consuming economy. In a world of $75–per-barrel to triple-digit oil prices, the U.S. economy is not likely to grow more than by 1 to 2 per cent per year until it can curb its oil appetite significantly”.
View our Reports and Resources page
Oil
Liberal Democrat Conference: ‘Oil price could double in return to 1970s style shocks’
Mr Huhne said the UK was having to prepare itself for “lots of shocks”, forcing the price of a barrel of oil to double, mirroring the volatility last seen in the 1970s.
The news came as Mr Huhne said he would only give the green light to more nuclear power stations if Chancellor George Osborne agreed to taking millions of the lowest paid out of income tax. “A deal is a deal,” he said…
Obama’s fiscal stimulus no substitute for cheap oil
There is nothing intrinsically wrong with President Obama’s earmarking $50-billion (U.S.) for new transport infrastructure, or extending the Bush tax cuts to low- and middle-income American households—provided the country can afford them. But already burdened with a record budget deficit of over $1-trillion, most Americans probably think Washington’s already done far too much for the economy as it is.
After all, there seems precious little to show for all the fiscal stimulus. The U.S. jobless rate seems stuck at around 9.5 per cent, and the GDP remains miles below its pre-recession peak. And although the economy is indeed growing, its pace is a shadow of past recoveries, and a fraction of last cycle’s growth rates…
IEA’s Birol says little supply impact from BP spill
The BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico will have little or no effect on the medium-term outlook for offshore drilling and supplies, the International Energy Agency told Reuters on Tuesday.
Fatih Birol, the chief economist of the group that advises 28 industrialized economies, said while some projects may be delayed in the short-term, the need to increase future oil supplies meant governments will not impose draconian regulations in the wake of the BP (BP.L) spill that caused the United States’ worst ever oil spill…
Oil sands emissions 6 pct above other oil -study
Emissions from Canada’s oil sands, from crude production to end use, are 6 percent higher than from other oil imported into the United States, a study said on Tuesday.
While that is well below the levels cited by some environmental groups, meeting new rules on carbon emissions would still mean an unlikely halving of greenhouse gases from oil sands crude over the next 10 years, according to the study by energy think tank IHS CERA…
BP well dead, but its effects live on
Sunday’s death knell for BP’s Macondo well heralded a milestone worth noting but was largely symbolic given the ongoing personal, economic, legal and environmental fallout from the accident.
The British oil giant and federal officials pronounced the well dead nearly five months to the day after the April 20 blowout 40 miles off the Louisiana coast that destroyed the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig, killed 11 workers and triggered the nation’s worst oil spill…
Oil Pares Loss as German Confidence Tempers U.S. Supply Concern
Oil erased earlier losses as a jump in German business confidence tempered concerns that fuel demand in the U.S. remains constrained by slack economic growth.
Prices may drop next week on speculation that U.S. inventories will climb as fuel demand declines, a Bloomberg News survey showed. Yesterday the Labor Department reported claims unexpectedly increased by 12,000 to 465,000 in the week ended Sept. 18, as the unemployment rate holds near a 26-year high…
Gas
Russia, China agree gas supply terms: Gazprom
Moscow and Beijing have agreed on key supply terms for future Russian gas deliveries to China, which is seeking to secure energy resources to fuel its growing economy, Gazprom said on Wednesday.
Russian gas giant Gazprom, keen to diversify its energy clients, has been in talks with China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) to start sending gas to China but the two countries have yet to agree on pricing…
Europe agrees plan to avoid gas shortages
The European Parliament has approved proposals to improve co-ordination between European Union member countries if they face sudden gas shortages.
Supplies to thousands of homes and businesses across the EU were cut last year due to a payment dispute between Russia and Ukraine…
Gas is the future
At least that was the message from a new report published today by Oil & Gas UK and written by Pöyry Energy Consulting.
The report’s authors reckon the government’s commitment to renewables is coming at the detriment to affordability, security and decarbonisation. They say the target of providing 15 per cent of energy from renewables by 2020 should be pushed back and gas should be used to help bring down carbon levels in the meantime…
Electricity
Ofgem launches wide-ranging energy review
The energy regulator, Ofgem, has announced a wide-ranging review into the costs of supplying electricity to the National Grid.
It promises an “open, comprehensive and objective” review of the charges…
Study says heat pumps are not environmentally friendly
A new report has found that UK air source heat pumps have the same carbon footprint as gaseous fuels used in conventional heating.
Emissions of powerful greenhouse gas, hydro fluorocarbon (HFC) add another 20 per cent to the carbon footprint of UK air source heat pumps, according to a study released today from Atlantic Consulting…
Smart grids need smart attitudes
The drive towards a low-carbon economy has dramatically increased the need for electricity suppliers to seek out and develop renewable energy sources and for consumers to curb their appetite for power. Even so, in the UK the stark facts suggest that within a decade demand for electricity is likely to outstrip the nation’s ability to supply it, says Luq Niazi of IBM Global Business Services. “We will simply have to live with less energy,” he says…
Produced by New Scientist in association with IBM. Paid for by IBM. All editorial content commissioned and edited by New Scientist
Nuclear
President Barack Obama’s Yucca Mountain decision is a blow to US nuclear power
This followed intense pressure from leading Democrat Senator Harry Reid, who didn’t want all of America’s nuclear waste stored in his home state of Nevada.
Yucca Mountain has been planned for more than two decades and is one of the most extensively studied areas of geology anywhere on the planet…
Renewables
US renewable energy bill faces battle in 2010
A bipartisan group of U.S. senators introduced a bill on Tuesday that would require utilities to generate minimum levels of renewable power which environmentalists welcomed but analysts said had slim chances of passing this year.
Jeff Bingaman, a Democrat and chair of the Senate’s energy committee, and Sam Brownback, a Republican, introduced the bill which would create a Renewable Electricity Standard (RES) requiring utilities to generate 15 percent renewable power by 2021…
Largest offshore wind farm opens off Thanet in Kent
The world’s biggest offshore wind farm off the Kent coast is being officially opened later.
Swedish energy giant Vattenfall said the 100 turbines are expected to generate enough electricity to power 240,000 homes…
Scots renewable energy target surpassed
Scotland is on track to smash its target for expanding renewable power generation, according to research.
It could move from 50% to at least 80% reliance on green energy sources within the next ten years…
Biofuels
Where there’s bugs, there’s brass: UK firm lands $500m biofuel contract
A British company that uses a genetically modified compost-heap bug to produce biofuel from rubbish has signed a $500m (£319m) contract with a US firm.
TMO Renewables developed a strain of “turbo-charged” bacteria that can turn tea bags, cardboard, wood and other household waste into fuel for cars and trucks. The Guildford-based company signed a 20-year, $25m-a-year deal with US firm Fiberight…
Airlines chief urges more investment in biofuels
The head of the world’s biggest airline association, IATA, berated the oil industry and governments on Friday for investing “peanuts” in cleaner biofuels.
“Biofuels could break the tyranny of oil and lift millions from poverty along with providing a sustainable fuel source for aviation,” Giovanni Bisignani, director general of the International Air Transport Association said…
UK
Solar power subsidy under review
The recent mini-boom in solar power could be in jeopardy, as the government has privately indicated that new feed-in tariffs that have fuelled the industry could be slashed.
If such cuts are adopted, renewable energy experts fear that it will scare off investors — with repercussions throughout the industry…
Chris Huhne announces 250,000 green jobs to boost the economy
A plan to create almost 250,000 jobs in green industries, including nuclear power and home insulation, will turbo-charge the economy and help offset budget cuts, the energy secretary, Chris Huhne, claimed today.
The “green deal” will lead to thousands of workers modernising some 26 million homes to make them more energy efficient as part of the coalition’s ambition to be the “greenest government ever”…
Government prepares fund to help small business become more energy efficient
The Government is preparing a radical multi-billion pound fund to finance the rapid “greening” of more than 4m small businesses.
Under the plans, firms will receive loans to replace old boilers, freezers and other pieces of energy hungry equipment, with the cash repaid from the savings made in their monthly energy bills…
Geopolitics
Arctic summit in Moscow hears rival claims
An international meeting to try to prevent the Arctic becoming the next battleground over mineral wealth is taking place in Moscow.
One quarter of the world’s resources of oil and gas are believed to lie beneath the Arctic Ocean…
China Suspends Ministerial-Level Talks With Japan Over Boat Clash
Diplomatic ties between the world’s second- and third-biggest economies soured as China escalated a dispute over Japan’s extended detention of a fishing boat captain for a collision in disputed waters.
China yesterday severed senior-level government contacts with Japan, halting aviation talks and suspending a meeting on coal because of the incident. Foreign Ministry spokesman Ma Zhaoxu pledged “strong countermeasures” if Japan failed to release the captain. Japan’s government hasn’t been informed of the measures, a spokesman said today…
Transport
How to Get People Out of Their Cars
[Editor’s note: This is the fourth excerpt from Patrick Condon’s new book Seven Rules for Sustainable Communities: Design Strategies for the Post Carbon World. This series, running Wednesdays and Thursdays for four weeks, offers just a sampling of Condon’s vital guide for green planning; interested readers are encouraged to seek out the book.]
Many believe that electric cars and windmills will solve the climate change crisis, with no need for fundamental change in city form. This belief excludes an acknowledgment of the gargantuan energy and material demands consequent to such an ever more sprawling metropolitan pattern…