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The Pentagon also expects an imminent oil shock

Matthieu Auzanneau, “Oil Man” blog, Le Monde
The figures of the U.S. Joint Forces agree with those of the Department of Energy, revealed here.

A report from the American Joint Forces Command published March 15 predicts that in 2015, the world capacity for petroleum production could be 10 million barrels per day less than the demand.

The report of the American Department of Defense (DoD), titled Joint Operating Environemnt 2010 indicates (page 29):

“By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015. the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MBD.”

10 million barrels per day (MBD), that represents the production of Saudi Arabia, the world’s leading petroleum producer. Such a shortfall, if it should come, would be more than 10 percent of the world demand for crude, which is today 86.5 MBD, and ought to reach 90 MBD in 2015.

If this hypothesis of the Pentagon comes to pass, a third oil shock would hit the world economy, one that would probably be more violent than the two preceding ones.

But in fact, 10 MBD in 2015 …

An identical prediction of a gap of 10 MBD between supply and demand in 2015 appeared on page 8 in the Department of Energy (DoE) document published in investigative report here on March 21.

The DoD and the DoE seem to agree on the same prediction … breathtaking.
(6 April 2010)
My rough translation from a post by French journalist Matthieu Auzanneau now online: Le Pentagone s’attend lui aussi à un choc pétrolier imminent.

Earlier in March, Auzanneau published an article which garnered widespread attention: Washington considers a decline of world oil production as of 2011

We ran another story by Rick Munroe on the DoD report in March: Joint Operating Environment 2010: Oil Supply Concerns (review)

Peak oil man [Colin Campbell] shifts focus to peak price, demand

Barbara Lewis, Reuters
BALLYDEHOB, Ireland — The economic shock of global recession has led a prime exponent of the theory conventional oil output has peaked to shift his view of the consequences, but he still thinks the world has to go green.

Retired petroleum geologist Colin Campbell, who worked for major oil companies as well as smaller firms, has long been associated with the belief the world’s oil supplies are dwindling.

He does not waver from that and dismisses the argument of the so-called optimists that technology will manage to keep eking out more and more oil to keep pace with rising demand.

What has changed is his opinion of the price impact and implications for fuel consumption after the spike of July 2008 to nearly $150 a barrel was followed by world economic recession, a deep drop in fuel use and a crash in oil futures to just above $30 in December 2008.

“I have changed my point of view about future prices,” said Campbell, who used to think the peak in conventional oil production, which he believes happened in 2005, would lead to a relentless price surge.
(6 April 2010)

DECC Start to ‘Get’ Peak Oil… Or Maybe Not…

Rob Hopkins, Transition Culture
After all the excitement over the last couple of weeks as to whether or not DECC are finally starting to ‘get’ peak oil, following the ’summit’ that I attended and wrote a detailed account of, initial indicators are that perhaps, erm, no they aren’t. The most recent ODAC (Oil Depletion Analysis Centre) newsletter (essential reading) quotes Lord Hunt (see left), the Energy Minister who dropped in for the last 30 minutes of the meeting, as telling the International Energy Forum in Cancun, “we need a shared understanding of what triggered the volatility of 2008 and 2009. We need the analysis to make sure we do not face the same energy price volatility again.” Two excellent pieces of analysis that explore just those issues were in fact presented at the meeting, the UKERC report, and the Peak Oil Task Force report, but given that he just attended for the last 30 minutes, they passed him by. Are we back at square one then?

(6 April 2010)
For those outside the UK, DECC stands for tje Department of Energy and Climate Change. -BA

Saudi Arabia’s crucial role in the crude price outlook

Kate Mackenzie, Energy Source (blog), Financial Times
Now that crude oil prices are above $85 a barrel, how can we expect producing countries to react? For most, this is a no-brainer. As The National points out, Russia – currently the biggest exporter – recently achieved a post-Soviet record in crude oil production, while producers such as Syria and Mexico insist they are doing all they can to turn around their declining production. Most Opec members, meanwhile, have for the past year been steadily reducing their compliance to the production quotas agreed by the cartel in late 2008.

That leaves Saudi Arabia. Ali al-Naimi, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister and the unofficial leader of Opec, says many positive things about the $70 – $80 price range that oil futures have traded in over recent months. “Close to perfect“

… While Saudi Arabia does sometimes exceed the quota limits, the latest estimates from the IEA show it is just within the target range. The question is, what will it do if prices remain above $85?
(6 April 2010)