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The UK Power Generation Expenditure Forecast 2010-2030

A major new ground-breaking report

“The UK Power Generation Expenditure Forecast 2010-2030,” by energy business analysts, Douglas-Westwood, focuses on the market for developing and constructing power generation capacity in the UK. The first published report of its kind, it provides an independent and uniquely detailed forecast of the UK’s energy landscape over the next 20 years.

The report highlights the fact that the closure of current nuclear and coal power stations is set to create a power shortfall in the UK as early as 2017. In the short term, this will be met mainly by new gas power stations – increasingly running on imported fuel – and, in the longer term, by a combination of new nuclear plants, wind power and clean coal power.

The report provides detailed sector-by-sector energy industry analysis – all of which points to the fact that increasing amounts of required energy capacity across the UK will place considerable pressure on the government and the entire energy supply chain. A balance will, therefore, need to be struck between energy security, climate change mitigation targets and public acceptance of alternatives to traditional power generation methods. The report provides essential information for decision-makers within the UK power generation sector and as well as those working in contracting and supply industries, government departments and financial institutions.

The supply chain

“The UK Power Generation Expenditure Forecast 2010-2030,” reviews the structure of each significant UK power generation supply chain component, analysing constraints and identifying the major players (UK and foreign). It also features the findings of newly conducted original research with respondents within major utility companies and supply chain service providers operating in the UK – delivering insightful qualitative analysis across key data points to support the report’s detailed quantitative data.

Long-range market forecasts

With in-depth forecasts through to 2030, the report offers the only currently available long-term view of the UK power generation market. It predicts the number of new power generation facilities that will be brought online up until 2030 – covering coal, gas, nuclear, offshore and onshore wind, wave & tidal, hydro, biomass, and solar photovoltaics sectors. The report also includes forecasts for the required capital expenditure (capex) to bring this capacity online. In each case, three scenarios are presented based on a range of assumptions – base case, high case, and low case. The resultant capex for each sector is furhter segmented into major items of plant ranging from turbines to instrumentation and control systems.

Document Contents

Summary & Conclusions – industry and government investment requirements.

Introduction – the market, key drivers.

Oil & Gas – is a supply peak likely?

UK Power Generation – the role of the government and Ofgem, power suppliers and future demand, green energy, carbon sequestration, likely plant decommissioning scenarios, the future power gap.

Technologies – coal, gas (and the role of LNG), wind and other renewables, combined heat and power, microgeneration and distributed energy technologies, power storage, the ‘hydrogen economy’

The Supply Chain – structure of power equipment & services supply chains, supply chain constraints, major players, supply chain survey.

Market Forecasts (2010 to 2030) – peak demand scenarios, capacity supply-demand comparisons, overall UK power plant market forecasts, coal market forecasts, gas market forecasts, nuclear market forecasts, wind market forecasts, wave and tidal market forecasts, hydro market forecasts, biomass market forecasts, solar PV market forecasts.
(30 Nov 2009)
This report is a major publication and costs over £5000. The main conclusions are outlined in the press release above from the Douglas-Westwood website.
From Energy Business Review:

John Westwood, chairman of Douglas-Westwood, said: “The rising amounts of required energy capacity will place considerable pressure on the UK economy, the entire energy supply chain and it is the consumer who will ultimately have to pay the price of indecision.

“Considering successive governments have had 30 years notice of the present serious decline of UK oil & gas supplies and full knowledge of generation plant lifetimes there is no excuse for allowing the development of the pending problem. A balance will need to be struck quickly between energy security, the intermittent nature of renewable energy generation, climate change mitigation targets and potentially volatile public opinion.”

How many cyclists does it take to power a hairdryer? The answer’s 18, as one family discovered in a unique TV experiment

Natasha Courtenay-Smith, Daily Mail
Until recently, much of Shelley Collins’s day was spent carrying out a familiar and somewhat tedious routine: traipsing around her three-storey town house after her husband and two children, turning off light switches, unplugging games consoles and turning the central heating down.

‘It was a long-standing joke in our family that if I went out, I’d come home to find the house looking like the Blackpool Illuminations, with every single light switched on for no reason other than it hadn’t been switched off,’ says Shelley, a primary school teacher, who lives in Cheltenham with her husband Andy, an IT consultant, and children Isobel, 15, and Daniel, 12.

‘And it wasn’t just the lights. Both my husband and children left their laptops on permanently, and every night the only person who would think to turn off the microwave and cooker at the switch – both have energy-draining LCD displays – was me.

…Today, Shelley’s family’s energy wastage is dramatically reduced. The house is full of energy-saving lightbulbs and every night, all appliances are turned off at their switch.

The reason for this turnaround? Their participation in a unique experiment in which they spent 24 hours in a house powered not by the national grid, but by a so-called ‘Human Power Station’ – 80 cyclists pedalling bikes adapted in order to generate electricity.

…The aim of the experiment was to illustrate in terms we can all understand – pedal power – just how much energy we use and to highlight the effort it takes to create the power we need, as opposed to simply flicking a switch.

The experiment, without doubt, provides food for thought…
(3 Dec 2009)

Energy bills could rise to more than £2,000, says Ofgem

Rowena Mason and Harry Wallop, The Telegraph
Alistair Buchanan, the chief executive of Ofgem, just two months after predicting bills could increase by 60 per cent by 2016, has now admitted he had not been gloomy enough.

Speaking at a House of Commons Energy select committee he said Ofgem had look again at its findings after energy companies told the regulator that it may have underestimated the scale of problems facing the UK.

Bills have already increased by much more than inflation, climbing from below £600 five years ago, and are now – especially for pensioners – many households’ biggest monthly cost.

Ofgem in October warned that rising demand, an increasing reliance on imports from uncertain sources, a lack of storage facilities and the fact Britain had too many ageing coal-fired power stations, would force up bills by between 14 per cent and 60 per cent above inlfation by 2020.
In the worst case scenario, this would inmply bills would increase from the current average of £1,300 for each household to £1,950.
However, Ofgem now believes bills could go considerably higher…
(3 Dec 2009)
The original Ofgem (Office of the Gas and Electricity Markets) report can be accessed here. The Telegraph article concludes with a quote from Mr. Buchanan, “It is absolutely incumbent on us to represent clearly to consumers what it is costing them, so they fully understand what the cost is to make Britain a nicer place to live in for our children and grandchildren.” My emphasis. I leave the reader to draw his own conclusions. -KS

Solar industry ‘in limbo’ as grants dry up

Jim Pickard, Financial Times
Renewable energy manufacturers have warned of their “frustration” after the government’s flagship grant scheme for solar power ran out of money less than halfway through the financial year.

The UK PV Association, which represents companies making and installing solar panels, warned that they were “in limbo” after the Low Carbon Building Programme Phase 2 was closed to solar applications this week.

The £50m ($83m) scheme had included up to £18m for hospitals, schools and other public sector buildings to instal photovoltaic panels on their roofs. But it has been closed down “due to unprecedented demand”.

Meanwhile, an announcement has been delayed on a clean energy cashback scheme – called “feed-in tariffs” – which will let people sell renewable power back to the grid. The industry had expected the decision this month but now believes it has been delayed amid wrangling between the energy department and the Treasury…
(2 Dec 2009)