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Oil Demand Has Peaked in Developed Nations, Never to Return — Report

Ben Geman, New York Times
Demand for oil in developed nations peaked in 2005, and changing demographics and improved motor-vehicle efficiency guarantee that it won’t hit those heights again, IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates says in a new report.

Reduced petroleum demand in developed nations could make their economic growth less vulnerable to oil price shocks, the report states.

Nonetheless, global oil demand is still expected to grow, overall, driven by China and other developing nations as the world economy recovers.

But demand for oil that has fallen in recent years in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, or OECD, nations won’t be made up, the analysts say…
(13 Oct 2009)

Why Oil Is Much More Plentiful Than “Peak Oil” Advocates Claim

Investor, InvestorCentric blog
“Peak oil” advocates would like you to believe that we are running out of oil, but Matthew Badiali explains at Daily Wealth why extractable oil is much more plentiful than they claim. If his argument is correct, it could mean strong profits for those who can take advantage of this window of opportunity in oil. See the following post to learn more.

Mexico’s colossal Cantarell field was once the second-largest oilfield in the world…

Cantarell funds 40% of Mexico’s annual budget. Those petro-dollars paid for universities, built a $12 million sports stadium in Chihuahua, erected a giant flagpole in Nuevo Leon, remodeled churches in Yucatan, and constructed swanky government offices in Oaxaca.

But according to a recent Wall Street Journal article, oil production from Cantarell peaked in 2005 and has fallen 75% since then. The golden goose is a dead duck… and its decline cost the government $14 billion this year.

The same thing is happening in Indonesia, Iran, and Venezuela. Indonesia went from a proud member of OPEC to a net oil importer. Venezuelan production peaked in 1997 and is down 27% since then. Iran’s production peaked in 2005, but has only fallen 2% so far… The worst is yet to come there…
(9 Oct 2009)

Russia 2010 oil output to fall -Bernstein analysts

Matthew Goldstein, Reuters London, Oct 14 (Reuters) – Russian oil output will stagnate in 2010 and begin to decline as mature fields lose production capacity and only one new project comes on line, oil analysts at Bernstein Research said on Wednesday.

Russia, now the world’s largest oil producer, pumped 10.01 million barrels per day last month, up 0.4 percent from the 9.97 million bpd produced in August, both record highs, Russian Energy Ministry data released last week showed.

But Bernstein analysts said Russian production, which recovered in 2009 after dropping for the first time in a decade in 2008, was merely experiencing a temporary spike following the launches of eight new fields this year.

Senior oil analyst Clint Oswald at Bernstein Research wrote that 0.6 percent year on year growth in the year to the end of September, in a year when eight projects added 640,000 bpd of new production, “does not sound like a great achievement or the start of an up trend.,”…
(14 Oct 2009)

Crude Oil Jumps Above $75 to One-Year High on Demand Optimism

Yee Kai Pin, Bloomberg
Crude oil rose above $75 a barrel in New York, the highest in a year, on optimism the global economic recovery will boost demand for energy.

Oil climbed for a fifth day as the dollar declined and Asian shares advanced. Prices rose yesterday after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries upgraded its 2010 global demand forecast on expansion in emerging economies.

“This rally today really was prompted by two things: one, the revised demand forecast from OPEC, and the other, the continued weakening of the U.S. dollar,” said Victor Shum, a senior principal at energy consultants Purvin & Gertz Inc. in Singapore. “The world is simply getting less negative in terms of demand growth.”

Crude oil for November delivery rose as much as $1, or 1.4 percent, to $75.15 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That’s the highest since Oct. 21, 2008. The contract traded at $75.07 at 2:50 p.m. Singapore time…
(14 oct 2009)