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The Patch: Peak supply vs. peak demand
Claudia Cattaneo, Financial Post (Canada)
The market’s obsession with plummeting oil demand has been so pervasive in the past six months it even fostered a new theory — peak demand.
Much like the peak oil movement gained momentum when oil prices were rising, now that they have collapsed some are convinced oil demand hit its highest point last year in many developed countries and will never return. They’re also pumped by the commitment of many governments to support conservation and new alternative energy.
(25 January 2009)
Peak Oil Production in Russia Suggests Worldwide Supplies on the Brink
Reggie Abaca, Market Rap
Russian oil production decreased for the first time in 10 years according to Vedomosti, a Russian newspaper. The decrease was only 0.7%, while exports were reduced more dramatically year over year, down 6.2%.
The fall in Russian production may be a major turning point in worldwide crude oil production. While OPEC nations such as top producer Saudi Arabia get the attention of most speculators, it is important to note that Russia is the second largest crude oil producer and exporter in the world. In fact, by itself, Russia almost matches the total exports of the third, fourth and fifth top exporting nations combined (Norway, Iran and the United Arab Emirates).
If Russian oil production has indeed peaked, it leaves the world with only three major exporters that are still supposedly able to continue to increase production: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iraq. Given the massive oil consumption needs of the United States, that leaves America in a particularly vulnerable position at a time when the United States is facing a financial crisis.
(26 Jan 2009)
Oil Cartel Keeps Cuts on Track
Jad Mouawad, New York Times
After months of gradually closing the oil spigot, members of the OPEC cartel have managed to stop the slide in oil prices — at least for now.
Showing an unusual degree of discipline, members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries have slashed their output by more than three million barrels a day in recent months as they sought to put a floor under oil prices, which have fallen by $100 a barrel since last summer. That is about 75 percent of the production cuts pledged by members of the cartel since September.
(25 January 2009)
Simmons: Is oil’s future sustainable? (PDF)
Matthew Simmons, Simmons International
(14 January 2009)
Latest slides from Matthew Simmons, prepared for a talk to the Dallas Committe on Foreign Relations. -BA
La Fin Du Petrole (2013-Oil No More) (video)
Stéphane Meunier, Terence Films via Daily Motion
More than 80% of the global economy relies on petroleum. What would happen if the world’s oil supply dried up overnight?
Directed by Stéphane Meunier and starring Hippolyte Girardot, Gwendoline Hamon and Helena Noguerra. 2013: Oil No More is a doco-drama based on the idea that oil companies, having vastly overstated their oil reserves to keep their value high, are faced with a wave of terrorist attacks aimed at jeopardising oil supplies to the West.
Reluctantly, they have to own up with the fact there’s only two years of supply left. Interviews with scientists, economists, environmentalists and Green politicians alternate with dramatisations following the life of greedy stock broker Paul.
He has invested 90% of his company’s shares in oil and watches with glee as the price of petrol skyrockets, until his professional and personal life are directly affected as a disastrous recession takes hold of the oil-dependent world.
Just watched this French film from 2005 about the end of cheap oil. It’s fascinating to see how things have changed since then. The climax of the film comes when oil reaches the unheard of price of $150/barrel. Fortunately, according to the (real) experts whose comments appear between dramatic scenes, we have technologies that are ready to solve the problem – hydrogen cars and biofuels. Cute ending.
Comments and review from an old thread at peakoil-dot-com. -BA