”A little tuft can often overturn a large load”
The saying, “A little tuft can often overturn a large load” can be read in Petrus Laale’s book of proverbs. Petrul Laale lived in Denmark during the 15th century and many of his Latin proverbs are thought to date from the 1350s. The saying shows that dramatic things happened even in that time.
The cost for the Iraq war
We have discussed the load but what about the tuft? My assertion is that it was the “Peak Oil Price” that was the destabilising factor. Too many people who borrowed money to buy houses at low interest could not handle the interest payments on the loans when interest increased in combination with increasing energy costs and inflation. The houses were repossessed by the banks who could not find new buyers which then caused the collapse.
According to the Energy Information Agency, EIA, we have consumed the following volumes of oil in recent years counted in millions of barrels per day (mbpd): (2004) 83.10 mbpd, (2005) 84.56 mbpd, (2006) 84.52 mbpd, (2007) 84.40 mbpd. This year’s first six months showed an average of 85.55 mbpd but now consumption is dropping. We are on a production plateau that follows our “worst case”. In 2004 the International Energy Agency’s prediction for 2010 was that we would consume over 90 million barrels per day. Now we know that it will be significantly lower.
Scenarios from Global Energy Systems, Uppsala University, Sweden
When they put the wagon back onto its wheels again new oil will be needed to get it moving. Compared with earlier crashes the volume of new oil will be limited and new, clever energy solutions will be needed. It is time to plan for a future after Peak Oil.
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