Peak oil - Feb 26
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Many more articles are available through the Energy Bulletin homepage
Representative Roscoe Bartlett (R-MD) interview (video)
Scott Nance, Energy Policy TV
Bartlett is interviewed about peak oil, constraints to US energy supply and the series of Special Order speeches he has delivered on the subject.
Related content found at: bartlett.house.gov/
(26 February 2008)
This just posted. Rep. Bartlett is relaxed, and makes his points easily. I think this is one of the best presentations he's made. -BA
Whither The Bumpy Plateau?
Stuart Staniford, The Oil Drum
Back when the October IEA total liquids number came in, Jim Hamilton at Econbrowser cited it (and other things) as evidence that there were "signs of gains in global oil production". JD at Peak Oil Debunked had a similar reaction. I felt that was premature since that one high datapoint was not a statistically significant departure from the overall flat plateau that oil supply then appeared to have been on for the last 1-3 years (depending on your choice of data).
However, a few months have passed, and the evidence for a change in trend in oil supply now seems somewhat stronger, albeit there is still a lot of uncertainty and conflicting data. I won't draw firm conclusions in this piece, but I'm starting to lean towards a bump up in 2008, rather than a bump down.
(25 February 2008)
The Fading Twilight of Oil (text and audio)
Bill Moore, EV World
Part 1 of exclusive interview with Twilight in the Desert author and energy investment banker Matthew Simmons.
Houston investment banker Matthew Simmons is somewhat surprised and obviously pleased that his 2005 'Twilight in the Desert' has now surpassed 100,00 copies in print -- making it a best seller of sorts -- and that it is now available in German, Chinese, Japanese and Korean.
But what really pleases him is that despite early and inaccurate accusations that his book criticizes Saudi Aramco for mismanaging Saudi Arabia's giant oil fields, his research efforts have won the praise of the very people who assumed they were the target of his pen.
That praise, however, hasn't tempered his conviction that the world as we know it is about to change irrevocably as the demand for petroleum outpaces supply.
In this exclusive interview, Simmons talks about the changes he's observed in the oil and gas industry since the release of 'Twilight' in May, 2005.
"Oil prices have gone from $60 to $100," he replied. "if they had gone from $60 to $10, there would be a lot of people saying, 'That idiot from Houston, obviously he was wrong...
"A lot of people attribute the price rise to hedge funds and fear factors... No, the market is really tight."
But for Simmons, it's not been the steady climb of the price of oil over the last three years, that has been the most important change for him personally. He told me that it was the education that he got researching the book, wading through the 200-plus petroleum engineering papers with the help of industry professionals that served as the basis of his book.
What surprises him the most is how he's taken such a keen interest in the technical minutiae of petroleum engineering after spending most of his career as an investment banker to the oil industry having little interest in how oil and gas actually were produced.
(24 February 2008)
Matt Simmons: Twilight In The Desert - The Risk Of Peak Oil
Simmons & Company
Matt Simmons has posted the slides from his presentation to the Minnesota House of State Representatives.
(4 February 2008)
Global shortage of metals looming
Peter Hodson, Financial Post
Comment: In 10 years, today's prices may look like a bargain
Our peak oil thesis gained some new respect last week as oil prices hit yet another record, the first close over US$100 per barrel. Demand fluctuates, but it is all about supply, and supply concerns this week showed how tight the market really is.
Peak oil has lots of press, but what about peak copper? Peak zinc? Peak gold? Sounds preposterous, but maybe it's not so far-fetched. Nearly every commodity is experiencing some supply issues, for a host of reasons. Add it all up, and it means potential supply shortages in the future. Demand may slacken this year, but in the next 10 years today's high commodity prices may actually look like a bargain.
Let's take a look at some of the issues facing commodity projects today, and give some examples of companies that have already been impacted by them.
Cost overruns: Inflation, equipment shortages, and labour issues have combined to wreak havoc on so many new commodity projects that long-term supply issues may result.
Peter Hodson is a senior portfolio manager at Sprott Asset Management.
(25 February 2008)
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