Building a world of
resilient communities.

MAIN LIST

 

ODAC Guest Commentary - Consensus About Conventional Oil Depletion?

The CERAWEEK 2008 energy conference was held in Houston last week. CERA also published a full eight pages of commentary in a Special Advertising Section of the U.S. Wall Street Journal on February 12 and 13 titled “Focus On Energy: CERAWEEK 2008”.

CERA states that one of the conclusions of their analysis of the world’s 811 largest producing oilfields is that the big fields start to decline after an average 13 years of production and the smaller fields start to decline after an average 8 years of production.

Since all the fields have been in production for some years it is reasonable to say that today’s largest oil fields will start to show a cumulative decline sometime in the next decade. Isn’t that what most producers outside of OPEC have been saying?

The next question is how much new oil and biofuel will be available in the next decade? CERA reiterates that combined old and new oil plus biofuels will amount to about 112 mbd in 2017 but does not go into detail.

CERA also says, “The issue of climate change poses the first serious challenge to fossil fuels primacy”. How about depletion? We are not looking for oil inside the arctic circle and in ultra deep water because we are afraid of global warming, but because we are running out of adequate conventional oil sources.

PETER WEGGEMANN, Retired chemist, petrochemicals. Naples, Florida

What do you think? Leave a comment below.

Sign up for regular Resilience bulletins direct to your email.

Take action!  

Find out more about Community Resilience. See our COMMUNITIES page
Start your own projects. See our RESOURCES page.
Help build resilience. DONATE NOW.

 

This is a community site and the discussion is moderated. The rules in brief: no personal abuse and no climate denial. Complete Guidelines.

Tags:  

Carbon Tracker Analysis: ‘Renewables are Already Outcompeting Fossil Fuels’

Clean technologies are already cheaper, on average, than the incumbent …

Timeline: The Past, Present and Future of Germany’s Energiewende

The Energiewende (energy transition) is an internationally recognised …

The Sower's Way: the Path for the Future

Our paper on "The Sower's Way" has been published in the IOP …

Just 16,000 Catenary Trucks Would Use All of California’s Electricity with only 2400 to 8300 Miles of Overhead Wires

It makes sense to electrify trucks since fuel from oil, coal, and natural …

The Energy-Water Nexus  

Energy and water are inextricably linked: It takes energy to supply water, …

Peak Oil Review - Sept 19 2016

 A weekly roundup of peak oil news, including: -Quote of the week …

Naomi Klein & the Let­down of the Leap Manifesto: Energy Depletion Dismissal is Just as Bad as Climate Change Denial (part 1/3)

Climate change denial is often decried for its destructiveness. But energy …