www.cera.com) issued a puzzling 4 page press release on January 17, titled "No Evidence of Precipitous Fall on Horizon for World Oil Production: Global 4.5% Decline Rate Means No Near-Term Peak".

" />
Building a world of
resilient communities.

MAIN LIST

 

ODAC Guest Commentary to CERA Press Release

GUEST COMMENTARY

CERA, the prominent Boston based Cambridge Energy Research Associates (www.cera.com) issued a puzzling 4 page press release on January 17, titled "No Evidence of Precipitous Fall on Horizon for World Oil Production: Global 4.5% Decline Rate Means No Near-Term Peak". This is a new annual depletion rate for existing oil fields CERA has developed that "provides the basis for more confidence about the future availability of oil".They predict "World Liquids Productivity Capacity" will climb to 112 mbd by 2017, just 10 years from now and an accompanying graph shows level production after that point. CERA adds that some 350 new projects will bring an additional 6.5 mbd of new oil to market by 2017 that is included in the 112 mbd Capacity prediction. Looks like a plateau-peak in 10 years.

Let's do the math: a 4.5% annual decline, starting with today's 86 mbd production, means 32 mbd less in 2017. Add back the 6.5 mbd of new oil and we're still short 25 mbd compared to today.

But what about growth in demand? Interestingly the press release does not mention growth. The International Energy Agency in Paris just predicted a 2.3% increase in oil demand this year. But let's use the historical growth rate of 1.5% for the next 10 years. That's an additional 15 mbd needed by 2017 for growth. This increases the projected global shortfall in 2017 to 40 mbd, equivalent to 4 Saudi Arabias of new oil coming on-stream in the next 10 years. How likely is that? This math predicts production in 2017 will be only 46 mbd, not 112 mbd, and proves how devastating a 4.5% depletion rate is in a very few years.

PETER WEGGEMANN, Retired chemist, petrochemicals. Naples, Florida

What do you think? Leave a comment below.

Sign up for regular Resilience bulletins direct to your email.

Take action!  

Find out more about Community Resilience. See our COMMUNITIES page
Start your own projects. See our RESOURCES page.
Help build resilience. DONATE NOW.

 

This is a community site and the discussion is moderated. The rules in brief: no personal abuse and no climate denial. Complete Guidelines.

Tags:  

2014 biggest year ever for solar, but oil price threat looms

Will only time tell whether it will be enough to keep solar panels cheap …

Rethink the Grid: Personal Power Stations

Rethinking the grid is quickly emerging as one of the hottest topics.

Goldilocks Is Dead

For oil, the Goldilocks zone has ceased to exist. This will have staggering …

US enters undulating crude oil production plateau in 2015

Feel-good-outlooks make the TV audience happy, but sleepy.

Global Shale Fail: Oil Majors Leaving Fracking Fields Across Europe, Asia

As Post Carbon Institute has pointed out in two major reports, estimated …

Peak Oil Review - Mar 23

A weekly review including Oil and the Global Economy, The Middle East & …

Cheap oil, complexity and counterintuitive conclusions

The chief intellectual challenge of our age is that we live in complex …