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Outlook for fuel reserves

Long and detailed analysis of the complete fossil fuel cycle by Dr. M. K. Hubbert. Originally published in the McGraw-Hill Encylopedia of Energy ca. 1976.

See the Hubbert Tribute site, for a 22-page PDF of the entire article.

The beginning and ending paragraphs are posted here.


The significance of energy in human affairs can best be appreciated when it is realized that energy is involved in everything that happens on the Earth -- everything that moves.

The Earth is essentially a closed material system composed of the naturally occurring 92 chemical elements, all but a minute fraction of which are nonradioactive and hence obey the rules of conservation of matter and nontransmutability of the elements of classical chemistry.

Into and out of the Earth's surface environment there occurs a continuous influx, degradation, and efflux of energy in consequence of which the mobile materials of the Earth's surface undergo either continuous or intermittent circulation. In addition, there are certain large chemical, thermal, and nuclear stores of energy within minable or drillable depths beneath the Earth's surface.

...Fossil Fuels in Human History

The role of the fossil fuels in the longer span of human history can best be appreciated if one considers the period extending from 5000 years in the past to 5000 years in the future. On such a time scale the epoch of the fossil fuels is shown graphically in Fig. 19. This appears as a spike with a middle-80% width of about 3 centuries.

It is thus seen that the epoch of the exploitation of the fossil fuels is but an ephemeral event in the totality of human history. It is a unique event, nonetheless, in geological history.

Moreover, it is responsible for the world's present technological civilization and has exercised the most profound influence ever experienced by the human species during its entire biological existence.

Editorial Notes: BA: Thanks to Jerry McManus and Hubbert Tribute for making this newly found article available to the rest of us. Contributor Jerry McManus writes: An article by the "father of peak-oil" found in an old energy textbook which I stumbled on recently while idly browsing the engineeering stacks at the local University. I believe this article offers one or two new insights into Hubbert's thinking on the question of fossil fuel production: First, so much of what is written about Hubbert seems to be stuck in a time warp going back to 1956 when he first presented his now famous bell-shaped curve. In this article we can now see that production curve in a new perspective as just one of three separate analyses that Hubbert applied to the complete fossil fuel cycle. Second, while some excellent work has been done by Jean Laherrère and others on showing the relationship between oil discovery and production (what Hubbert calls the cumulative statistical data analysis), this article is the first time I've seen a relationship established between all three aspects of the complete fossil fuel cycle: discovery, production, AND reserves. Third, the analysis that Hubbert presents as discovery per foot of exploratory drilling is a completely new analysis that I have not seen discussed anywhere else in over three years of following the peak-oil debate. Blogger WebHubbleTelescope agrees that this new analysis holds great potential for estimating the URR of fossil fuel reserves (or validating estimates derived by other means), as detailed in some outstanding work posted recently to his Mobjectivist blog:

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