IEA “supply crunch” is not peak oil - Birol
[Excerpt]: There is no contradition between the International Energy Agency’s forecast of long term oil supply growth to 2030 and a “supply crunch” by 2015, according to its chief economist Fatih Birol. Mr Birol insisted today that the short term crisis would not be caused by a fundamental shortage of oil but by entirely man-made factors.
Speaking at the launch of the IEA’s latest World Energy Outlook in London, Mr Birol reiterated both the Agency’s long term forecast that oil production will reach 116 million barrels per day in 2030 - up from around 86 mb/d today - and the evidence that supply will fail to to meet demand much sooner. The IEA’s reference case demand forecast requires an additional 37.5 mb/d in gross production capacity by the middle of the next decade, but new projects announced so far by oil companies will add only 25 mb/d, leaving a shortfall of 12.5 mb/d...
About David Strahan is an award-winning investigative journalist and documentary film-maker who specializes in popularizing some of the most difficult and important stories in business and science. Since the early 1990s he has reported and produced extensively for the BBC’s Money Programme and Horizon strands. He is also the author of The Last Oil Shock: A Survival Guide to the Imminent Extinction of Petroleum Man, published by John Murray Ltd, and continues to write and broadcast about energy.-BA
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