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Peak Oil - July 23

Click on the headline (link) for the full text.

Many more articles are available through the Energy Bulletin homepage


Peak Oil Caucus chairs Bartlett, Udall comment on National Petroleum Council report
(Video and transcript)
E&E TV
Last week, the National Petroleum Council released its new report, "Facing the Hard Truths about Energy," stressing the increased development of alternative energy sources in order to meet global energy demand -- a demand that will likely not be met solely through global oil and gas production.

During today's E&ETV Event Coverage, Reps. Roscoe Bartlett (R-Md.) and Tom Udall (D-N.M.), co-chairmen of the Congressional Peak Oil Caucus, discuss the NPC report and explain why they believe it hides the truths about global energy.
(23 July 2007)
Nice coverage from E&E TV. The transcript looks a little rough (for example, "RAMCO" for "Aramco." Also, online reaability would be improved by breaking up long passages into shorter paragrpahs.

UPDATE:
The E&E editors have responded by revising the transcript. Thank you! Your online readers thank you!

I should mention that E&E has been a good resource over the years, with online video coverage of U.S. energy and environmental issues.
-BA


Increased Global Demand for Energy and Mineral Resources

Vincent Matthews, ASPO-USA
Why talk about minerals in a publication devoted to Peak Oil? Because minerals also follow the "Hubbert Curve". Indeed, the life history of anthracite coal production in the United States is a classic illustration of an exhausted resource. And, Hubbert himself used production curves for pig iron in 1959 to illustrate his analysis of oil resources.
Global Framework

The exploding growth in China's and India's economies (current GDP growth of 11% and 9% respectively) is placing demands on the world's natural resources in a way that is unprecedented. Much of the attention in the U.S. media is rightfully on energy. Indeed, Goldman Sachs reported recently that four countries in particular - Brazil, Russia, India and China, or the so-called BRIC countries -are grabbing the most market share in oil and gas from American companies. The BRIC's share of the industry's market value has grown from virtually nothing 15 years ago to more than one-third today, while American companies' stake has dwindled from more than half to less than a third.

Mineral resources are receiving much less media attention, but are also experiencing unprecedented demand— with prices in the 21st Century increasing markedly for virtually all base metals, precious metals, minor metals, and even cement. The average price increase for 25 important metals in the past four years was 538%. However, there are indications that high prices alone may not be the U.S.' greatest concern. There is a larger specter that the U.S. may not be able to obtain needed natural resources, at any price, because China and/or India may have tied up the supply.

Dr. Vincent Matthews is the State Geologist of Colorado. He will be speaking at the ASPO-Houston conference in October.
(23 July 2007)


Prediction #1 (of 4) from Oil Geologist Jeffrey Brown: Producers' Own Consumption Rising, Exports about to Plummet

Energy Tech Stocks
When the National Petroleum Council, a group of mainstream oil industry executives and advisers, acknowledged last week that finding supplies to match rapidly rising global oil consumption "is going to be increasingly tough," Jeffrey Brown might have felt vindicated that the crown princes of oil were finally starting to see things his way.

But Brown, an independent petroleum geologist in Texas whose fear-inducing forecasts about the future of oil have been dismissed over the years by all but a relative handful, was too busy working on what he describes as the net export crisis that is about to hit the world without warning.
(23 July 2007)
JB writes:
Scroll down to Newsmakers.

This website is run by Bill Paul, who worked for the Wall Street Journal for a long time. He thinks that the Net Oil Exports issue is in the process of breaking out into the MSM.


ODAC News - Monday 23 July

Douglas Low, The Oil Depletion Analysis Centre

US National Petroleum Council report
1/ High oil prices threaten to linger (Financial Times, Wed 18 Jul)

Economy
2a/ Bernanke promises to fight back as sub-prime loans crisis deepens (The Times, Thu 19 Jul)
2b/ Bernanke says sub-prime defaults may hit $100bn (The Times, Fri 20 Jul)

Nuclear Energy / Electricity Supplies in Japan
3a/ Nuclear crisis in Japan as scientists reveal quake threat to power plants (The Times, Fri 19 Jul)
3b/ Japan's six electric utilities tell Tepco they can supply power (Platts, Fri 20 Jul)

IEA / US NPC Reports in the Press
4/ Three contrasting articles, one quoting the IEA's Medium Term OMR July 2007, two the US NPC report released last Wednesday
4a/ The oil squeeze has just begun (MSN Money, Tue 17 Jul)
4b/ Keeping Our Motor Running (CNN Money, Thu 19 Jul)
4c/ Oil and gas may run short by 2015, say industry experts (The Independent on Sunday, Sun 22 Jul)

The Sunday Herald Finally Covers the Oil Squeeze
5a/ China booms ... we pay the price (The Sunday Herald [Scotland], Sun 15 Jul)
5b/ Disaster at the end of the cheap energy era [Letters] (The Herald, Mon 16 Jul)
5c/ Oil companies see profits soar ... but warn production cannot meet demand (The Sunday Herald [Scotland], Sun 22 Jul)

Population
6/ UK needs a two-child limit, says population report (The Guardian, Wed 11 Jul)

UK Floods
7/ Looting, panic buying - and a water shortage (The Times, Mon 23 Jul)
(23 July 2007)

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