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Peak oil at American Association of Petroleum Geologists conference
Kristopher Hanson, Long Beach Press Telegram (Calif)
LONG BEACH – Development of the globe’s remaining untapped oil reserves will push world production to its ultimate peak as early as 2020, before a long, slow decline begins near mid-century, petroleum experts predicted Tuesday.
Peak production levels, estimated to reach 950 million barrels daily, are expected to last between 20 and 30 years before gradually tapering off, giving economies across the globe a final window of opportunity to begin transitioning to alternative energy sources or face increasingly fierce competition for the fossil fuel, authorities said at the annual American Association of Petroleum Geologists convention in Long Beach.
“The peak in world oil production is not imminent, but is nevertheless foreseeable,” said Richard Nehring, an independent petroleum geologist who addressed the conference Tuesday. “Ultimately, world oil production decline will be inescapable in the latter half of the 21st century.”
..To meet expected demand, production needs to rachet up by at least 5 million barrels daily, experts said.
One potentially massive untapped reserve lies off California’s coast, but restrictions on new drilling have hampered exploration in recent decades.
Analysts believe any local deep-water reserves may ultimately be tapped if prices rise high enough.
“It’s probably going to be a resource for our children, if it’s there,” said Long Beach Gas and Oil Geologist John Jepson. “It’s price-dependent. The price has to be conducive to match the high cost of production in deep-water areas.”
Future growth in production will also depend heavily on recovery of oil from existing fields, a technique that has increased in recent years due to technological breakthroughs and investment, said Ron Charpentier of the U.S. Geological Survey.
(4 April 2007)
Richard Heinberg Museletter Interviews (video and audio)
Global Public Media
A new regular feature exclusive to Global Public Media, Richard Heinberg discusses his Museletters with GPM’s Julian Darley. These brief interviews will be available on a monthly basis in both video and audio formats.
In Burning The Furniture, Heinberg and Darley discuss the recent study by the Energy Watch Group in Germany on the future of global coal supplies.
In Iran: We Will Know Soon… Heinberg and Darley take a close look at the US/Iranian tensions.
(4 April 2007)
ASPO-USA site to be reinvigorated
Dave Cohen, The Oil Drum
I am now doing a weekly column at the ASPO-USA website. The first one appeared today. In addition, we are now publishing the Peak Oil Review (a weekly summary with an essay). Soon, the Peak Oil News, put together by Tom Whipple, will be published daily in the News section. Right now, it is only available as a PDF for downloading after a login. That will be changing.
So, I urge TOD readers to start including the ASPO-USA website among the internet websites they visit. We are hoping to publish other material (essays, analysis by key players in the peak oil community) as well.
More traffic at the ASPO-USA website will ultimately support the yearly conference — in Houston in October this year — and help sales of the DVD set recording the Boston conference. It’s all for a good cause.
(4 April 2007)
I’ve noticed several new articles already posted at the ASPO-USA site. There is the essay that Dave mentioned: Peak Oil — The Power of Declines. I was also very happy to see the latest Peak Oil Review posted as HTML. Tom Whipple’s peak oil journalism is an excellent rsource and it’s good to have it more accessible. -BA