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Peak oil - March 2

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Saudi Arabian oil declines 8% in 2006

Stuart Staniford, The Oil Drum
For a talk I was meant to give, I updated my graphs of Saudi oil production, which I hadn't done in a few months. What I found was pretty interesting, and I'm starting to draw stronger conclusions.

...Overall, I feel this data is clear enough that I'm willing to go out on a limb and conclude the following:

  • Saudi Arabian oil production is now in decline.

  • The decline rate during the first year is very high (8%), akin to decline rates in other places developed with modern horizontal drilling techniques such as the North Sea.
  • Declines are rather unlikely to be arrested, and may well accelerate.
  • Matt Simmons appears to be right in Twilight in the Desert, but the warning did not come until after declines had actually begun.

I suggest that this is likely to place severe political strains on Saudi Arabia within a year or two at most.
(2 March 2007)
Picked up by Kevin Drum at the popular liberal blog at Washington Monthly.


Brunei thinking about life after the peak

(Original: "Brunei's Record Impresses TOTAL ")
Azlan Othman, Brunei Direct
Bandar Seri Begawan - Oil and gas reserves in the world would begin to decline in the second part of the present century while the present supplies would last 15 to 35 years.

This prediction was made by Mr Louis Heuze the General Manager of TOTAL E&P Deep Offshore Borneo BV, the world's fourth largest Oil and Gas Company in an interview with Weekend Bulletin.

While revealing that the world's peak oil will be reached sometime between 2025 and 2035, Mr. Heuze said that it was time we thought about the future. "Brunei is endowed with excellent assets, to prepare for the future. But the country must begin now," he added.

TOTAL, has been in Brunei for 20 years, represented by TOTAL E&P Borneo BV which is the operator with a 37.5 per cent interest in the offshore Block B while TOTAL E & P Deep Offshore Borneo BV is the operator with a 60 per cent interest in the deep offshore Block J.
(2 March 2007)


Texas oilman Pickens says global oil production at its peak

Jim Krane, Associated Press
Legendary Texas oilman T. Boone Pickens sees today's stubbornly high oil price as evidence that daily global production capacity is at - or very near - its peak.

If demand for crude oil rises beyond the current global output of roughly 85 million barrels per day, Pickens told The Associated Press, prices will rise to compensate and alternative sources of energy will begin to replace petroleum.

...Forbes publisher Steve Forbes challenged Pickens' assumptions during an exchange in the conference, saying political - not technological, or geological - roadblocks stood in the way of increasing the world's oil output. With the right incentives in places such as Mexico more oil could be brought to market and prices could drop, Forbes said.

Pickens responded by saying that Mexico is a declining producer of oil, as are most other countries, naming the United States, Norway, Britain, Canada and soon, Russia.
(1 March 2007)

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