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The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030 (PDF)
…here are ExxonMobil’s key conclusions:
By 2030, energy demand will increase by about 60% compared to 2000. While the vast majority of this increase will occur in non-OECD nations, efficiency gains throughout the world will remain important.
The global energy mix will look very similar 25 years from now. Oil, gas and coal will be predominanat.
Resources are adequate to support global demand growth. However, access to these resources and large, timely investments will be needed to ensure people have accesss to reliable energy supplies. Global trade, particularly for oil and natural gas, will continue to grow.
Lastly, technology will remain critical to success in all aspects of our energy challenges, whether mitigating demand growth, expanding supplies, or improving the environment.
Contributor Dr. Larry Hughes points out that you can view the webcast for the ExxonMobil 2006 Energy Outlook. Larry adds: “It always pays to read the small print, especially when someone claims that the world has a resource base of 4 trillion bbls:
This presentation includes forward looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein.”
ExxonMobil: researching new energy solutions
Today, an energy company and a leading university share a common goal.
Along with other industry leaders, we’ve helped establish a research center at Stanford University dedicated to finding new technologies that meet the world’s growing energy needs, while dramatically reducing greenhouse gase emissions. It’s called the Global Climate and Energy Project (GCEP), and it’s the largest independent research project of its kind – ever.
Greenwashing or change of heart? Or maybe both? You decide. Regardless of ExxonMobil’s motivations, the Global Climate and Energy Project is doing very important work. -BA
Exxon sees oil use, carbon emissions soaring
Steve Hargreaves, CNNMoney
The world’s largest energy company says demand for fossil fuels will soar; sees little hope for corn-based ethanol.
(12 Dec 2006)
Exxon’s latest forecast sees coal use rising again
John M. Biers, DowJones via MarketWatch
In contrast with other Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) energy forecasts in recent years, the company’s projection outlined Tuesday sees comparatively greater use of coal compared with natural gas over the next 25 years.
ExxonMobil’s shift in the projected gas-coal balance drew some attention during a 75-minute conference call with analysts. ExxonMobil Tuesday said it expects coal use to grow by an annual rate of 1.6% a year through 2030, little changed from the 1.7% growth outlined in its 2004 forecast. But the oil giant sees natural gas consumption rising by 1.7% annually through 2030, a sharp reduction from the 2.2% annual growth forecast just two years ago.
The resurgence of coal, coupled with slightly diminished projections for overall energy consumption in 2030, were among the more noteworthy elements in ExxonMobil’s annual forecast. Otherwise, the presentation was mostly a reiteration of long-standing company policies on such issues as the “peak oil” debate.
(12 Dec 2006)
Oil giant rejects ‘peak oil’ view
Dan Piller, Star-Telegram (Texas)
Exxon Mobil on Tuesday lined up solidly against “peak oil” adherents, saying the estimated 4 trillion barrels of crude oil available for production will be more than enough to satisfy the estimated 60 percent increase in world demand for crude oil through 2030.
Such a view runs contrary to the peak oil argument, which warns that the world is near the peak production and any decline will weigh heavily in increased costs and geopolitical friction as demand continues to climb, particularly in China, India, Russia and the developing world.
(13 Dec 2006)
Exxon Mobil issues bullish outlook on hydrocarbon reserves, demand
Shawn McCarthy, Globe and Mail
OTTAWA — Global oil and gas reserves are abundant, and even at lower prices companies could extract them profitably, Exxon Mobil Corp. said yesterday in its latest 25-year outlook.
On a conference call yesterday, Exxon Mobil’s Jamie Spellings said energy demand growth will slow as a result of increased efficiency and concerns about global warming, but the company still forecasts total energy consumption will climb by 60 per cent between 2000 and 2030.
Coal, crude oil and natural gas will continue to serve as the inexpensive fuels of choice while alternative sources such as ethanol, wind and solar — while growing rapidly — will have only a modest share on the total energy market, according to the company’s outlook.
(13 Dec 2006)