During the run up to the mid-term elections, several members of the Bush Administration including our President finally admitted why we can’t leave Iraq – because the Islamic extremists will gain control of the second largest petroleum reserves in the world and use oil as an economic weapon against us. I guess we aren’t in Iraq to kill “terrorists” after all. If that were true, what could be better than a bloody, prolonged civil war between the two sects of Islam – Sunni and Shiite? Why not just get out of their way and let the “terrorists” kill each other. Surely, if they are busy killing each other “over there” they won’t be thinking about “killing us over here.”
At the same time President Bush finally confessed that our brave young men and women of the U.S. military are stuck in Iraq to guard the oil, we learn that SUV sales are way up now that gas prices have come way down. Houston, we have a problem!
Despite the truth slowly leaking out about the real reasons for our military adventure in Iraq, we are still offered false choices by both political parties on why we need to stay there or leave.
The Republicans tell us we can’t leave Iraq but at the same time want to wait for the free market to transition us away from fossil fuels. But if the free market is the answer, why not get out of the Middle East and let the chips fall where they may. If the Islamic extremists gain control of the oil, the price will go up but then the free market forces will really kick in and solve the problem. The truth is that government intervention is the only way we will wean ourselves from our oil addiction slowly over time. But most conservatives are ideologically opposed to any government intervention in the economy.
There will be many more losers than winners on Wall Street during our transition to renewable energy. At the end of the day, a renewable energy-based economy requires extreme conservation of resources. That means only buying stuff we really need, in other words, less economic activity. That is a lessee faire capitalist’s nightmare.
An economy that runs on renewable energy will require a totally different way of living. Sooner or later we will have to downsize the scale of everything we do. This will threaten the big business economic status quo. But the deep pockets of oil, coal, pharmaceutical, big box retail and financial industries get Republicans elected. That’s why the Republican Party as it exists now will never take America’s only long-term path out of the Middle East — a new economic paradigm.
The Democrats say we have to get out of Iraq but no mention of another Arab oil shock in our future if we do so. The Democrats won’t tell us that if we leave Iraq without going on a severe petroleum detox program, we will be back again soon. Sure, Democratic leaders talk of energy independence. But we never hear that we might have to renegotiate the “American way of life” to do so. Why? Two words: Jimmy Carter. During the second 1970s oil shock, President Carter told Americans:
We must face the prospect of changing our basic way of living. Either we will do this now in a planned way or we will do it later with chaos and suffering brought on by the inexorable laws of nature.
In the 1980 election, the American people rejected that idea in favor of Ronald Reagan’s “Morning in America” message. The Democrats know we are more attached today to the comforts and conveniences otherwise known as the “American way of life.” Democratic campaign managers realize “Jimmy Carter speak” about serious energy conservation and personal sacrifice is a big loser at the ballot box.
By the way, the Democrats also need big business to get elected as well and they love big government – another casualty of the post Peak Oil economy. We cannot count on today’s Democratic Party to prepare us for the upcoming energy descent.
The truth is, our leadership won’t change until “we the people” change. Let’s get real. There are only two things that will compel us to change our “way of life,” a full-blown economic crisis or gut-wrenching fear. We don’t fear bell curves and powerpoint presentations like we fear the threat of evil doers who publicly state they want to kill every single American. Of course, this is only a perception and not reality. The Islamic extremists may want to kill us all but there aren’t enough of them with the sophisticated weaponry it would take to kill even a significant number of us. Sure, another terrorist attack of some sort is probably immanent. Worse, there is always the remote chance a terrorist will detonate a nuclear device or dirty bomb in a major city. But your chances of dying a violent death at the hands of a desperate fellow American are much greater if our oil dependent economy is denied its life blood – oil. This is only a matter of time, unless we seriously get started on the long, hard project of reinventing an economy and lifestyle that runs on alternative energy. Osama Bin Laden’s “bleed until bankruptcy” strategy is the real danger. But the false notion that our path to “victory” lies in killing all the “terrorists” and then living “happily ever after” continues – but only in our perceived reality.
There are legitimate reasons for our false perceptions about terrorism. It may be thousands of years since we hunted dangerous, large beasts to survive but our fight or flight instincts still drive our fears. We are biologically wired to respond to immediate threats. Peak Oil and Climate Change are long-term, abstract threats while the constant danger of terrorism is immediate and instinctually feels much more urgent.
Once we get past our immediate need to feel safe from physical threats, we seek economic security. Many Americans are too focused on their next paycheck to care about Peak Oil and Climate Change. When our economic security needs are met, we seek pleasure. The accumulation of more grownup toys is a never ending quest that our materialist culture reinforces. There is a constant voice in our ear telling us about all the things we need to buy today to be happy. We are habitual consumers. Worse, our entire economic arrangement depends on our narcissistic behavior continuing indefinitely.
Considering it will take a WWII level effort and at least two decades of sustained economic planning, focused investment and financial sacrifice to pre-empt a petro- collapse, these obstacles seem insurmountable. The American people didn’t even perceive Nazi Germany and the Empire of Japan as threats until we were jolted out of our complacency by Pearl Harbor. Our Pearl Harbor — September 11th, 2001 — has 1% of the population (our military and their families) fighting an ill-advised, undefined and never-ending “War on Terror” while the rest of us watch their exploits on cable TV and covet our tax cuts.
Just when I was loosing all hope for the future, Congressman Charlie Rangel, a veteran with combat experience in Korea, uttered the words Generation X-Box fears the most – THE DRAFT. Charlie is on the right track but I have something more radical in mind. Given the dire consequences of Peak Oil and Climate Change to modern civilization, isn’t it about time we take a serious look at a radical solution?
Do you remember the creepy short story called “The Lottery” by Shirley Jackson? It used to be required reading in most American high school literature classes. The story is about a small village that partakes in an unusual yearly ritual. The master of ceremonies is Mr. Summers who runs the local coal company. Once a year all the families in town gather to see whose family will get picked in a chance drawing by Mr. Summers. The family then must draw straws among themselves to see who the “chosen one” will be. An innocent little girl, Tessie, draws the short straw. At the very end of the story, we find out what “The Lottery” was about. The villagers surround Tessie with rocks and stones and a big stone strikes her on the side of her little head. The townsfolk stone poor Tessie to death.
“The Lottery” evokes a stomach-turning sense of fear in the reader. It’s the kind of fear Americans felt watching innocent people leap to their deaths from the World Trade Center Towers. We could all identify with the innocent civilians killed on 9-11. What makes “The Lottery” so terrifying is the arbitrary nature of this dark ritual. Everyone’s skin is in the game. As the reader, you identify with the family whose unlucky number comes up and the innocent little girl who draws the short straw. This is just the kind of fear we need today to save us from ourselves!
What we need is a modern-day ritual that will jolt us out of our “business as usual” mindset. We need to bring the serious threat of Peak Oil and Climate Change into our perceived, present reality. Think reality T.V. except with a purpose. Imagine this scenario:
It’s that time again. A sense of dread has been weighing on you and your family as the big day approaches. It’s finally here. Today is the day of The Lottery. You gather the family around your big-screen television. Dick Cheney, this year’s master of ceremonies, begins the festivities with a rousing patriotic speech about the nobility of service to our great country. But Dick has toned down his war rhetoric quite a bit since The Lottery became law. After all, one of his daughters might be navigating her way through improvised explosive devices in Baghdad this time next year. All Americans between the ages of 16 and 60 are eligible for The Lottery. Soldiers over 50 were common in the Civil War, especially in the confederate army. We are at war, right?
The government has spared no expense on this celebration of participatory democracy. This patriotic extravaganza is better than the Super Bowl halftime show. But it’s nowhere near as fun, especially when they play the national anthem because that means it’s time for The Lottery to begin. It’s time to find out which American families will get the honor of possibly sacrificing one of their loved ones for our freedom. Now that you or someone in your family might be asked to offer the ultimate sacrifice, you begin to question what kind of freedom we are defending in the Middle East. Killing Arabs in the Middle East while guarding something that will run out some day anyway seems more and more like defending an empire of oil.
Your heart races as your governor announces the chosen families in your state in alphabetical order. You hold hands and pray just as you used to pray for the troops. But your prayers have much more urgency now that your lives are on the line. Tears are rolling down your face as the governor reads your family’s last name. You have a common last name so you sweat out the reading of each address. Thank God! You lucked out this time. Your family’s freedom and your lives are safe. You all hug each other in a tearful embrace like just like the fortunate families who are reunited after their son, father, daughter or mother returns in one piece from the war zone in Iraq.
This new American ritual is far from over though. You tune in your television the next weekend when the chosen families draw straws to see which family member gets two years of wartime military service. Dad is not allowed to sacrifice himself for his wife or kids. That would ruin the suspense and dramatic impact.
The media doesn’t have time to cover all the family drawings. But if one of the chosen families is well known from the world of sports, entertainment or politics the television ratings will break all-time records. The Lottery is now a media spectacle.
The Lottery draws 20,000 family names. That’s 17,000 more than the number of terrorist victims on 9-11. You don’t fear terrorism anymore. You fear The Lottery. If your number didn’t come up, you probably know someone who did get picked.
Only extreme situations are considered for deferments from The Lottery. If you’re coherent and responsible enough to drive a car, you can serve your country in wartime. Let’s be honest, everyone is expendable these days. No matter how important you are, there is always somebody ready, willing and able to take your place no matter what you do. This is true especially if you are rich and famous.
Since The Lottery started, the politicians and media pundits stopped all their partisan rhetorical warfare It just doesn’t resonate anymore with the America public now that we are all equally engaged in the Middle East war effort, if not physically then certainly emotionally.
The media frenzy has just begun. In the following months you’re treated to continuing coverage of “the chosen ones” during their basic training. The new recruits have four military bases specifically designed for their unique training needs. No need to interfere with the volunteer forces. That would hurt our combat readiness. That’s not what The Lottery is about anyway. Its purpose is civilian readiness – for the post-oil age.
This is still a free country so “the chosen ones” have some choice about their line of duty. Unfortunately, none of the jobs are safe from the hornet’s nest that has become Iraq. If you’re a peacenik and totally opposed to shooting or killing “terrorists,” you can drive a Hummer. The Army has plenty available now. Since The Lottery started, most people sold their Hummers to the government. Driving a Hummer or a big SUV has become unsafe in public because they are now a direct threat to every family’s safety. Hummers and big SUVs are now only seen in highly unpopulated areas. The Lottery has been a real boon to Smart Car sales.
If you’re an X-Box or Playstation veteran of the cyber-wars, The Lottery has the job for you. Your quick trigger reflexes will come in handy when you’re asked to kick in the doors of Iraqi civilians and make life and death decisions. Does the mean looking Arab man look like he might someday fly a plane into an American building? Or is he just angry as hell that you broke into his house and now threaten his family? If so, how angry is he? Is he angry enough to kill you? What an adrenalin rush, huh?
If you have ever had a desire to be a journalist, The Lottery could be your ticket. When “the chosen ones” see action in Iraq, the American people will see the good, the bad and the gruesome on cable television. If you have the right stuff you could be an imbedded journalists in Iraq where you will film and document “the chosen ones” military adventures. You will perform a valuable service for your country. We waited until the history books were written before we could see the horrors of war in movies like Saving Private Ryan or We Were Soldiers. You will bring the brutality of war to us in real-time so that we can evaluate whether or not the cause is worthy of our sacrifice.
The Lottery “winners” serve in a special division separate from volunteer forces. Again, the military doesn’t want the conscripts to interfere with the professionals. More important, this will make it easier for “the chosen ones” to be the focus of America’s attention. We will all be obsessed with this reality show. When they lose a leg, we lose a leg. When they come back with combat stress syndrome, we do also. When they come back in a box, we know our number may come up in next.
How will The Lottery impact our political leadership? Considering The Lottery is held only during wartime and then on the Sunday after every national election, you better believe it will! Suddenly, it’s much easier for our political leaders to tell us the truth about the connection between our military involvement in the Middle East and our energy dilemma. We are real-time stakeholders. Politicians who play on our fears will now tell us how THEY will change our energy-intensive behavior for our own good instead of distracting us with this deceptive “War on Terror.” No more conflating support for the war policy with support for the troops. As we enter the voting booth, WE ARE THE TROOPS.
Eventually, The Lottery will make us question this or any future war policy with intense scrutiny. Why are we spending 4 billion dollars a week defending the oil in Iraq when that money could be used on our inevitable massive investment in America’s renewable energy future? It never did make any sense if you bothered to think about it. Now we’re not too busy to think about it. And now that we’re all thinking, it’s time to redirect a sizable chunk of federal dollars from the military industrial complex toward our post-oil age technology and infrastructure transition.
When our leaders tell us they plan to make tough decisions that may hurt our economy in the short-term, we will listen. The Lottery will force us to make the sacrifices necessary for our daunting transition to a sustainable energy future because we understand we have no choice. Perception is now reality. Problem solved!
The Lottery may sound like a radical, even wacky idea. But I honestly can’t think of any other way out of our energy predicament. The alternative is to roll the dice and let the looming energy crisis happen. Sure we will wake up eventually. But we may find we have woken up to our worst nightmare. Given what has come out of economic collapse before, the rise of Hitler’s Nazi Germany comes to mind, that is actually the most radical path we could take. Now we live in a world armed with thousands of nuclear weapons. Is The Lottery really that crazy?
I visit www.energybulletin.com regularly where I read great ideas from great people who are seriously engaged in this defining challenge for humanity. Yes, awareness is growing. But things we must ultimately do like the Oil Depletion Protocol and re-localizing economies have obstacles that are not going to be moved without a change in the general public’s mindset. There is just too much economic, social, cultural, political and psychological inertia taking us in the exact opposite direction. For example, I don’t see any elected leader pursuing the Oil Depletion Protocol and deliberately sacrificing economic growth while the American people are holding politicians accountable for the short-term performance of the economy. And I have a warning for those who support the re-localization movement. We will need to re-localize economies. However, it’s imperative that the federal government be on board with this movement at some point. It will be increasingly expensive for the government to defend the unsustainable economic status quo. If we don’t make our national leaders change course, the taxman will bleed the financial life out of our local economies. And if your community has any idea of not paying taxes or seceding from the union, you will find federal troops or corporate mercenaries from Black Water Security on your doorstep setting you all straight.
Let’s face it. Awareness of Peak Oil or Climate Change will not compel us to change our “way of life” — at least not enough of us to make a difference. We need a sense of extreme urgency and we need it now. With The Lottery, America’s oil addiction is a life or death issue in the mind of John Q. Public. Without The Lottery John Q. will continue to sleepwalk into the abyss. It’s as simple as that.
On first thought, it’s hard to imagine the wealthy elite who hold the reigns of power in America going for The Lottery. But media and alternative energy companies stand to profit substantially. They must have lobbyists in Washington to. The Lottery is a target marketers dream: A massive audience receptive to any company with solutions that will free us from energy dependence on the Middle East. Companies positioned to profit from America’s renewable energy future will bid up advertising fees during The Lottery telecasts to astronomical levels. Investors, sensing a wave of public sentiment turning toward alternative energy, will plow billions into these technologies. The American entrepreneurial spirit will finally be focused like a laser on solving our energy problem.
The Lottery is the ultimate win-win government and corporate partnership.
•The long-term energy and national security interests of the American people are served.
•Renewable energy companies will profit and grow extremely fast.
•Advertising revenues will finance a substantial portion of the program’s expenses.
The Lottery is the kind of government policy conservatives and liberals should love! Pro-free market and anti-war at the same time!
Is anyone with me on this? Mark Burnett, how about it? I guarantee The Lottery will be much bigger than Survivor. I’m talking about an opportunity to save the world economy from petro-collapse and make a boatload of money at the same time. Come on! Let’s challenge the government to partner with us on this noble idea. If you read this, shoot me an email if you’re interested.
PS: If anyone really tries to run with this idea and make it happen, I have the right to change my mind and retract it from the public domain. I’m 45 years old, in good health and I watch the national news every night.
The Lottery would be bitter pill to swallow wouldn’t it? That’s why it’s the perfect solution.
