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We are living like gods. How to return to earth?

Random snippets from ASPO conference:

Between now and 2012 increased OPEC spare capacity + NGL + Deep water production could drive oil prices down to $30s or 40s - Mike Rodgers

A lot of operators will back off to avoid going into steep decline. Watch Russia - Matt Simmons

3 out of 4 Russian giant gas fields are in decline - Simmons

Out of Rigs, no new oil - Matt Simmons

Cantarel, the single most improtant field for the US could go from 1.7 mbd today to .6 mbd in 2010 - Simmons

KSA rigs up dramatically, production flat
Leading countries no longer increasing production despite big new rig count - Staniford

LNG supply to US declined in 2005. Spain and Japan outbid us. Supplies are not there Tankers are not being built - Arthur Smith

1/3 of new oil found has cost > $25 / bbl - Smith

25% increase in exploration spending between 2001 and 2005, 4% increase in production - Smith

Expansion of Canadian Oilsands limited by natural gas, water and dilutant. - David Hughes

Oil Sands Cap cost 2004 - $78,000 /bbl/day; 2006 - $131,000 / bbl / day - Hughes

Oil Sands mining uses 3/4 mcf / bbl
insitu uses 1.5 mcf / bbl - Hughes

EROI for Oil Sands = 2 - Hughes

Biofuels without major technical progress will provide insignificant role in meeting future needs - James Bartis

Bright future for biofuels, Competitive @ $30 oil - Lee Lynd

Corn Ethanol EROI = 1.3 per Pimentel; = 20 per Khosla (I know he misquoted Pimentel) - Lynd

Biofuels have life cycle issues for food production, wildlife and recreation - Lybd

Cape Wind Power proposal has EROI of 8 to 12 - Jim Gordon

Hubbert's Curve can't differentiate between demand destruction and supply constraint - Robert Kaufmann

With assumption changes, Hubberts Curve can predict peaks ranging from 2013 and 2036. Peak is uncertain using this method - Kaufmann

Those predicting peak will prefer to be late with alternatives rather than early to maximize profits - Kaufmann

No economic incentive for OPEC to ramp up production capacity for same reasons - Kaufmann

High oil prices support US defecit spending because 45% of petrodollars are recycled back to US - William Clark

Other petrobourses will undermine US world reserve currency - Clark

Iran's uranium contains molybdenum which hinders purification. Only US, Russia and China know how to remove - Clark

Best case, best assumptions, crash course US needs 5 years just to get started for peak oil; 10 years before anything is produced and 20 years before we can produce significant quantities of substitutes for conventional oil. Waiting is deadly. Preparing will require unpopular measures - Roger Bezdek

World car demand is going up up up (from graph). Freight and air demand is growing faster than cars.
There are too many of us using too much stuff - John Heywood

Technology will not solve 300% growth in fuel demand - Heywood

Fuel Cells for Cars - We are stuck on storage - Bill Reinert

Can't recycle Lithium Ion batteries - Reinert

Biodiesel is #1 reason for deforestation of tropical rainforests (palm oil) - Reinert

Rolling volatility for oil and another crisis within 10 years - Reinert

Ogalla aquifer decline serious problem for biofuels in US - Reinert

All parts of Toyota designs have carbon budgets - Reinert

In 1975 80% of Americans never traveled by air - Randy Udall

We are living like gods. How to return to earth? Udall

We consume 140# of plastic and petroleum per person per week in US. We are the oil tribe - Udall

Easy oil is gone. 62% of remaining oil is in Middle East. 75% of remaining oil is in Muslim countries - Micahel Klare

Unstable, corrupt, hostile to US, ruled by violent people - Klare

Expect most oil producing regions to become more violent - Klare

US government's stated special responsibility is to preserve access to supply. Military's role is protect the flow of oil - Klare

Chinese are contesting our right to prject power - Klare

Editorial Notes: khaos3 is a "former chemical engineer, retired portfolio manager" attending the ASPO conference now underway in Boston. He posted these intriguing snippets in the Comments section of The Oil Drum. Thanks for spreading the word, khaos3. For more on the event, see the ASPO conference website. More reports should be appearing soon in the blogosphere. -BA -BA

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