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Peaking of World Oil Production: An Overview (PDF)
Robert L. Hirsch, Atlantic Council Workshop on Transatlantic Energy Issues
Outline
- On the road to peaking
- Timing
- Why is it so complicated & contentious?
- One “simple”approach to forecasting
- Mitigation & risk
In Conclusion
- Oil production is very complex/ intuition fails.•Oil peaking will happen; the timing is uncertain.
- It’s liquid fuels, not energy.
- “Simple”theory fits the data; Implications are unpleasant.
- The risksare very large.
- Mitigation technologies are available
- Implementation & timing are critical.
(23 Oct 2006)
Several of the mitigation options suggested by Hirsch (such as heavy oil/oil sands) are very poor from the point of view of global warming. -BA
World oil production may have peaked-executive
Scott Malone, Reuters
BOSTON – World production of crude oil may have already peaked, setting the stage for declining output that could lag demand, a top advocate of the “peak oil” theory said on Thursday.
Matthew Simmons, chairman of Simmons & Co. International, a Houston-based investment banking firm specializing in the energy sector, said U.S. government data showed that the world oil supply has declined through the first half of this year.
Energy Information Administration data showed world supply of crude oil has declined to 83.98 million barrels per day in the second quarter after hitting 84.35 million bpd in the fourth quarter of 2005.
“If you basically have another six to ten months of that decline lasting, then I think for certain we would look back and say, ‘Guess what? We actually reached a sustainable peak in crude oil production in December 2005,'” Simmons said at a meeting of the United States of the the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas.
(26 Oct 2006)
Mainstream news covers the ASPO conference!
