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It starts to look like a plateau

Rune in Norway, Energy Resources
The blogspot recently posted updated diagrams for the development in world oil supplies (believed to be all liquids) based upon data from EIA Petroleum International Monthly for October 2006 which includes data as of July 2006.

The data from EIA shows that the world supplies of oil were down with an average of 0,18 Mb/d for the 7 first months of 2006 relative to the same period of 2005, and that the supplies of regular oil and lease condensate so far still had a top back in December 2005.

For the last 22 months (September 2004 – July 2006) the arithmetic average for oil supplies was 84,25 Mb/d, and supplies have been running within 1 % of this average for these months.

OPEC (the second diagram) supplies (oil, lease condensate and NGL’s) have so far had a top back in September 2005.

OPEC supplies (oil, lease condensate and NGL’s) are down 0,29 Mb/d for the 7 first months of 2006 compared to the same period of 2005.

(1 Oct 2006)

Yet another ‘inconvenient truth’

Jean Arnold, Catalyst Magazine
Fossil fuels are involved in nearly all we own, eat, wear, do, and everywhere we go. Rising oil prices, from a growing gap between supply and demand, are rippling through the economy.

As the demand for oil grows, pundits quibble over how many decades of oil remain. But even the most cheerful forecaster does not see a long future for the liquid that fuels our lives. The more crucial question is: How will the depletion play out? ..

On Catalyst’s website, the article contains almost no formatting. Click on the PDF link for a download of the article formatted as it appears in their printed publication, showing the main article, several sidebars, and graphics.
(6 Oct 2006)
Well-written and thorough introductory article, is followed by decent list of suggested responses and links to online resources.–LJ

Audio: Kunstler – Making Other Arrangements

Unwelcome Guests collective
Introduction by Lyn Gerry:

What happened during hurricane Katrina demonstrated starkly that the fate of poor people is of little concern to the people who run things in America. Flood victims were left to starve, then shot at when they tried to get food, then given a one way ticket to anywhere while developers moved in to grab their land for future vacation condos. This should be a cautionary tale as to what to expect in the event of an economic meltdown that suddenly brings millions of people into the ranks of the poor who never expected to be in that position, and who, without a paycheck, have no means to fend for themselves in a society where money must be paid to somebody for even the most basic needs – water, food, shelter,

Blaming the poverty on personal failures has been all the rage in America since the 1980’s, and the myth of self reliance persists in a society where it has been impossible for more than a century – I mean, it’s not like you can find a piece of vacant land, build a log cabin, plant some corn, hunt wild game and draw water from the creek – for most people, the only food they’ve ever seen comes from a grocery store or a restaurant. The captains of industry drove people off the land and into the cities, then into the suburbs. Underwriting this whole process was cheap fossil fuel – now much less cheap and destined to become more expensive. The widening ripples of the rising price of petroleum, the basis of almost everything in this society, means more downsizing, more mergers. fewer jobs, more people with no money to spend who still must live. Based on the events of Katrina, help won’t be coming from Washington. It’s time to think about making other arrangements.
(3 Oct 2006)

Audio: David Korten: The Great Turning

Reclaim the Media, Radio4All
Recording from world premiere of Korten’s 2006 work, The Great Turning: From Empire to Earth Community.

Recorded April 29, 2006 in Seattle as a benefit for Reclaim the Media (
(April 2006)
I haven’t read Korten’s book The Great Turning, but I expect this talk is a synopsis of it. Very worth listening too. Topics: peak oil and climate change, history of empire, and the power of prevailing cultural stories. Korten sees peak oil as an opportunity to address ingrained and unjust social structures. Understanding the dominant cultural ‘stories’, and creating new liberating stories is central to his approach:

We humans live by the stories that shape our cultures. The real power of empire resides less in it’s capacity for physical force than its ability to control the cultural stories by which we define our nature and the which the prevailing culture defines the pathway to prosperity, security, and meaning. In each instance, the far right’s favored versions of these stories affirm the dominator relations of Empire.

THE IMPERIAL PROSPERITY STORY says that an eternally growing economy benefits everyone. To grow the economy, we need wealthy people who can invest in enterprises that create jobs. Thus, we must support the wealthy by cutting their taxes and eliminating regulations that create barriers to accumulating wealth. We must also eliminate welfare programs in order to teach the poor the value of working hard at whatever wages the market offers.

THE IMPERIAL SECURITY STORY tells of a dangerous world, filled with criminals, terrorists, and enemies. The only way to insure our safety is through major expenditures on the military and the police to maintain order by physical force.

THE IMPERIAL MEANING STORY reinforces the other two, featuring a God who rewards righteousness with wealth and power and mandates that they rule over the poor who justly suffer divine punishment for their sins.

These stories all serve to alienate us from the community of life and deny the positive potentials of our nature, while affirming the legitimacy of economic inequality, the use of physical force to maintain imperial order, and the special righteousness of those in power.

The above is partially a transcript, partly copied from the Yes! Magazine article The Great Turning: From Empire to Earth Community from the Summer 2006 edition.