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Peak Oil - July 11

Click on the headline (link) for the full text.

Many more articles are available through the Energy Bulletin homepage


Real Oil Crisis
(video)
ABC via Information Clearing House
What would happen if the world were to start running out of oil? Conventional wisdom says we’ve got 30 years, but there’s a growing fear amongst petroleum experts it’s happening much sooner than we thought – that we are hitting the beginning of the end of oil now. So how soon will the oil run out, and can we stop our economy collapsing when it does? How prepared are we for the real oil crisis?

ABC Australia - 11/25/05 - Run Time 13 minutes
(25 November 2006)
Just posted on the web. Interviews with Jeremy Leggett, Doug Schwebel (Exxon), Prof. Peter Newman, Eric Streitberg (Managing Director, ARC Energy). Recommended by Allen L Roland.


Bakhtiari: oil industry hits peak production

Barney Porter, PM ABC (Australia)
A leading expert has warned that the world's oil industry has started to reach its peak production rate and is already in the first phase of a transition to an uncertain future.

Dr Ali Samsam Bakhtiari predicted on this program two years ago that the crisis would begin in 2006 or 2007.

Now he says the current estimates of oil reserves are grossly exaggerated and we are approaching a time when oil may reach $US 300 a barrel and demand will out-strip supply.

It may happen this decade.
(10 July 2006)
Short interview with Dr. Bakhtiari. Other publications seemed to have picked up on his comments:
‘Global oil output at peak, set to fall 32% by 2020’ (Bloomberg)
World running out of oil: expert (Lateline)
Oil production limit reached: expert (ABC News)


'Mission Accomplished' - High oil prices are here to stay

Jerome a Paris, European Tribune
Oil hit $75 per barrel again this week, setting once again new highs. [Graph]

While not very spectacular - after all, we hit $70 almost a year ago, and $75 a few months back already, recent price increases are part of a pretty consistent upwards trend worth putting in context again.

Before I take off to my much needed holidays, let me chart once more why many anlysts don't see oil prices go down in the foreseeable future - and why I personally believe they'll go up significantly.

Update: go read ManfromMiddletown's diary on the same topic, with an excellent summary of how the Mexican election might have a major impact on oil prices: Jerome may get his $100 barrel... from Mexico.

I like this graph because it shows something simple: [Graph]

Oil prices have basically increased in a straight line from $25/barrel to $75/barrel since Bush's 'Mission Accomplished' stunt. Until then, you could argue that they had remained in their general flat trend, with a dip after the 98 Asian crisis, and upwards bumps during the dotcom boom or the run up to the Iraqi War. In May 2003, at 25$/barrel, oil prices were not news (other than, possibly, to underline the "accomplished" thingy). Since then, they have gone up relentlessly

Oil prices have basically increased in a straight line from $25/barrel to $75/barrel since Bush's 'Mission Accomplished' stunt. Until then, you could argue that they had remained in their general flat trend, with a dip after the 98 Asian crisis, and upwards bumps during the dotcom boom or the run up to the Iraqi War. In May 2003, at 25$/barrel, oil prices were not news (other than, possibly, to underline the "accomplished" thingy). Since then, they have gone up relentlessly.
(8 July 2006)
This is #27 in the series "Countdown to $100 oil." Also posted at Daily Kos.


Trouble South of the border: Mexico's oil production

Dave, The Oil Drum
In April of this year, Mexico's president Vincente Fox announced a major new discovery in the Gulf of Mexico by the state-owned oil company Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX). This new field, announced a scant few months before Mexico's national presidential elections, was said to contain a potential URR of 10 Gb (billion barrels) of oil. I had wanted to do a story on PEMEX and Mexican oil production. What was the story? I knew from the discoveries trend that finding a field of this size is now rare, a statistical outlier. So, I waited. On July 5th, I got my answer and my patience was rewarded. The Energy Bulletin, quoting from the Oil & Gas Journal (OGJ) announced Fox-hailed deepwater well a modest gas find

I had followed the story closely that the 2nd biggest oil field in the world and the biggest producer of heavy sour crude, Cantarell, is now in decline, perhaps radical decline. However, I am planning a follow-on story that will explore what is happening there and at Ghawar. Here, we'll concentrate on other aspects of the steadily deteriorating situation in Mexican oil production. As usual, let's get the big picture from the EIA country analysis brief.
(10 July 2006)
The Oil Drum site appeared to be down when I tried to access this article. I read it as part of Tom Whipple's daily Peak Oil news headlines. -AF

UPDATE: The Oil Drum is up and running. The link to the article is www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/7/10/145048/052 . -BA


Opec: 'We do not subscribe to the peak-oil theory'

Neil Chatterjee, Mail & Guardian
Oil cartel Opec scolded consuming nations on Tuesday for forcing it to spend billions on spare crude production capacity while sending confusing policy signals on future demand.

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has an estimated 100 exploration and production projects with investment in the region of $100-billion to meet rising demand, but justifying spare capacity to calm oil market nerves was difficult, said acting secretary general Mohammed Barkindo...

Opec forecasts demand for oil to grow at 1,5-million barrels per day (bpd) until 2010, led by developing countries and the transportation sector, but Barkindo said supply growth would meet or exceed new demand.

"This will bring sufficient upstream capacity," he said. "We in Opec do not subscribe to the peak-oil theory."
(11 July 2006)
No one can seriously deny that oil is essentially a non-renewable resource and therefore will at some stage peak in production - the question is when. -AF

UPDATE:
Note that we have had prominent back-to-back denials of Peak Oil, yesterday in the WSJ, and today by OPEC. IMO, continued evidence of the "Iron Triangle" at work. If memory serves, Ayn Rand, in "Atlas Shrugged," said that one could discern the truth from assuming the opposite of what most of the media and most government officials were saying. This kind of thing always reminds me of someone who, when you meet them, starts by assuring you of how honest they are (I always check to make sure I still have my wallet whenever I hear something like this.) - WesTexas

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