[ Mexico’s Cantarell field, the second highest oil-producing field in the world, has begun a premature decline, signaling an imminent peak of overall Mexican oil production. Khebab of GraphOilogy here demonstrates, with a quite technical analysis, what this will likely mean for oil exports from a country with a growing population and appetite for oil. -AF ]
Mexico is the second largest source of crude imports for the US with 1.55 mbpd in 2005 . I tried to compile different URR (Ultimate Recoverable Ressource) estimates from various sources:
|BP Statistical Review||14.803||Year-End 2004||33.9||5.975||54.67|
|Oil & Gas Journal||12.882||January 1, 2006||35.8||5.975||54.67|
|World Oil||14.803||Year-End 2004||33.9||5.975||54.67|
volumes are in Giga-barrels (Gb)
From the table above, we can design a simple triangular probability density function for the URR where the maximum of probability corresponds to the median value.
The domestic oil consumption has grown rapidly but is showing signs of a slow down since 2000 (see Figure 5). Note also that retail prices for Diesel and super-gasoline have increased since 2000 (see Figure 6).
 PRB Country Profiles: Mexico
 Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2003 Revision
 NIGC – Country Analysis Briefs: North America: Mexico [eia.doe.org]
 Crude Oil and Total Petroleum Imports Top 15 Countries