Building a world of
resilient communities.

MAIN LIST

 

Venezuela plans to ride oil to economic growth

CARACAS, VENEZUELA - Venezuela aims to ramp up oil production to an average 3.6 million barrels per day in 2005 to generate 5 percent economic growth and build on this year's oil-driven recovery, according to the government's draft budget for next year.

The 2005 forecasts, which Finance Minister Tobias Nobrega made available to Reuters on Thursday before their scheduled Oct. 15 presentation, compared with projected 3.4 million barrels per day oil output for this year by the world's No. 5 petroleum exporter.

But many analysts believe that the government's oil figures are inflated and that the OPEC producer is still struggling to fully restore production after a crippling general strike early last year that rocked its petroleum industry.

"I will believe it when I see it. ... You have to wonder where it's going to be coming from," said one international oil industry expert, who asked not to be named.

In fact, Bloomberg News reported that the president of Venezuelan state-owned oil company Petróleos de Venezuela, Ali Rodriguez, said Friday that PDVSA can't boost oil production significantly at present because of the continuing impact from the strike.

While President Hugo Chavez's government says it has restored oil production to levels well above 3 million barrels per day since the strike, industry analysts say real production this year is running around 2.6 million to 2.7 million.

But no one disputes that soaring world oil prices, which rose over $53 a barrel last week, are strongly propelling the Venezuelan economy out of a two-year recession.

The government is forecasting gross domestic product growth for 2004 at between 10 percent to 12 percent following contractions of 7.6 percent and 8.9 percent in 2003 and 2002 respectively.

Left-wing populist Chavez, his position strengthened after he won an Aug. 15 referendum on his rule, has been pumping tens of millions of petrodollars into health, education and development programs.

"2004 has been a year of recovery," Nobrega said in an interview late Wednesday.

"The message for 2005 is that it will be both a year of capital and social investments, but there will be savings as well," the finance minister added.

The 2005 draft budget forecasts inflation for the year of 15 percent and a fiscal deficit between 1 percent and 1.5 percent of GDP.

What do you think? Leave a comment below.

Sign up for regular Resilience bulletins direct to your email.

Take action!  

Start your own projects. See our RESOURCES page.
Make connections via our GROUPS page.
Help build resilience. DONATE NOW.

 

This is a community site and the discussion is moderated. The rules in brief: no personal abuse and no climate denial. Complete Guidelines.

Tags:  

The Great Game in the Holy Land

Guess what? Almost all the current wars, uprisings, and other conflicts in …

North Dakota Considers Weakening Standards on Radioactive Drilling Waste as Oil Prices Collapse

As the collapse of oil prices threatens North Dakota's shale drilling rush, …

Peak Oil Notes - Feb 26

A mid-week update. Oil prices fell on Monday and Tuesday this week on …

Is the US Overplaying Its Energy Hand?

The evidence suggests the United States is playing energy poker with a pair …

Are We In The Midst Of An Epic Battle Between Interest Rates And The Oil Price?

What follows are the continuance of my research, discussions, observations …

Quakes in Gas Fields Ignored for Years, Dutch Agency Finds

A report from the Dutch Safety Board has accused the oil and gas industry …

Peak Oil Review - Feb 23

A weekly review including Oil and the Global Economy, The Middle East & …