Alexander’s Gas & Oil Connections is organising a three-day meeting in Koblenz-Lahnstein, Germany on 19-21 October 2004 for a wide-ranging discussion of energy issues. The aim is to stimulate new thinking and perspectives on the challenges arising from the depletion of the world’s non-renewable energy resources. Topics that will be discussed by international energy experts and analysts include future supplies and demand, costs, economic and environmental impacts, and alternatives. The programme and a registration form can be downloaded here. For further information contact Alexander Wöstmann or visit his website.[Posted 19 August 2004]
Calling US Energy Information Administration (EIA) price forecasts "unrealistic and misleading", a recently retired executive of the Saudi national oil company, Aramco, predicts that supply constraints will inevitably lead to higher oil prices through the end of this decade. "Given the complex issues associated with finding and developing substantial new production capacity within a limited number of years, there is little ground for optimism regarding a return to an era of inexpensive oil prices", former Saudi Aramco Vice President Sadad al-Husseini writes in the US trade publication, Oil & Gas Journal (‘Why higher oil prices are inevitable this year, rest of decade’, August 2, 2004). While geopolitical problems in the Middle East and elsewhere are likely to continue to influence oil prices "for years to come", he says that the US Geological Survey and EIA conclusions about future oil production capacities "are not straightforward and cannot be reliable." He sees no evidence of the massive investments with supportive national policies "occurring on the required scale anywhere in the world" to meet projected increases in demand, and in any case, "there are good technical reasons to believe that the remaining oil and gas resources are in fact of much lower quality and profitability than the global reserves now being consumed." Given that "no major oil discoveries or expansion projects are now in sight," he concludes that "it would take years of investments to replace declines, let alone adding new net increases in production capacity."[Posted 19 August 2004]
ASPO Workshop Proceedings Now Online
Presentations from the Third International Workshop on Oil & Gas Depletion organised by The Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) in Berlin on 25-26 May 2004 are now available on the ASPO website. Abstracts of the presentations and biographies of the 28 speakers are also available. The workshop brought together energy analysts, economists, industry leaders and public officials to examine the outlook for global oil and gas production, assess the far-reaching economic, social and political impacts of diminishing supplies, and consider energy options for the future. You can read a personal account of the workshop by Michael Ruppert, publisher of the newsletter From The Wilderness, here.
The Truth About Oil & The Looming Energy Crisis
Colin Campbell, founder of The Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO), has published a new booklet examining the latest evidence of the approaching peak and decline in world oil production. Presented in the form of an imaginary public inquiry into the issue, The Truth About Oil & The Looming Energy Crisis also contains a ten-part PowerPoint slide show/lecture series on CD-ROM. To order the booklet, contact the publisher. Colin Campbell is the author of three previous books, The Golden Age of Oil, The Essence of Oil and Gas Depletion and The Coming Oil Crisis.
Of the top 45 oil-producing nations that accounted for 98.7 percent of world oil production in 2003, a total of 25 (including 7 of the 11 OPEC nations) are now past their peak production, according to Richard Duncan, director of the Institute on Energy & Man. This concurs with an earlier study by UK energy analysts Douglas-Westwood, which found that 52 of the 99 countries that have or can produce significant volumes of oil are already well past their peak. Writing in Oil & Gas Journal (July 19, 2004), Duncan also reports on the results of his latest forecast of global peak oil production. The forecast shows that a large increase in the estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) — the total volume of oil deemed recoverable worldwide, as opposed to the total resource base or ‘oil in place’ — would delay global peak production by only a few years. An earlier forecast predicted that global peak would occur in 2007 based on an EUR of about two trillion barrels. The new forecast assumed a much larger EUR of 3.3 trillion barrels and found that the effect would be to delay global peak production by three years, or about one day for every billion barrels added to the EUR.[Posted 19 August 2004]
Oil Depletion – No Problem, Concern or Crisis? is the title of a one-day conference to be held at the Energy Institute in London on 10 November 2004. Chaired by the Institute’s Vice President, Martin Fry, the conference will examine geological, financial, economic and political factors affecting future oil supplies with speakers from a range of backgrounds and interests representing the full spectrum of opinion on the depletion debate. An afternoon panel discussion with the seven speakers will be chaired by oil and gas exploration consultant Richard Hardman, formerly Vice President at Amerada Hess International and a past President of the UK Geological Society. The conference programme and a booking form can be downloaded here. For further information contact Faye Whitnall.[Posted 19 August 2004]