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Suspension of OPEC Quota Is an Option at Beirut Meeting

A suspension of OPEC production quotas is an option that could be discussed at a ministerial meeting of the cartel in Beirut next week, a source close to OPEC said.

"Suspending the quotas could be one of the options available to the organization to send a strong message to the markets that OPEC is doing something real thing to curb oil prices," he said.

"OPEC has not ruled out any possible alternative to calm the oil market and curb the oil price. If it takes suspending the quotas, OPEC will seriously consider that. But nothing has been actually discussed formally," the source said.

His comments were in line with a report Friday in the Wall Street Journal's European edition.

Oil prices have shot up to historic highs in the last few weeks.

The Journal said producers in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries could allow each member to put as much oil as it wanted on the market, which would in effect mean a suspension of the output quota mechanism, in order to bring prices back down below 40 dollars a barrel.

The source said that a suspension would not be significantly different from a straightforward increase of production quotas, which total 23.5 million barrels per day, and should not cause any upset, the source argued. "Our commitment has not changed and it will never change. We have a mission, we have a clear vision and a clear mission. We need to stabilize the oil market, stability is in our interest and in the interest of the entire global community."

The organization was likely to consider increasing its quota ceiling by 2.0 to 2.5 mbd. "If that's what the market needs to put the lid on the high oil prices, so be it," he commented. "All of this will be the subject of discussion during the market monitoring committee (meeting) on Wednesday evening." However, he added: "I'm sure they will discuss that option and other options. I'm not saying it has been ruled out, we do not rule out any practical and working solutions."

The full OPEC session will be held on Thursday, June 3, in the Lebanese capital. On Thursday of this week OPEC President Purnomo Yusgiantoro of Indonesia mentioned three options but did not refer to a suspension of quotas.

The first was to increase quotas by 2.0 mbd, which would not increase supply, the second to increase by 2.3 mbd, which would authorize production beyond quotas that are already in effect, and the third to increase quotas significantly.

The Journal reported that a suspension of quotas could be matched by a significant increase in the targeted price range of 22.0-28.0 dollars per barrel.

Many OPEC members have been calling for this for months to compensate for a fall of the value of the dollar.

Editorial Notes: MC writes: In 1971 the Texas Railroad Commission (TRC) lifted the quotas on oil production in Texas. Texas was the swing producer of U.S. oil production at that time, being given the task of matching oil production with demand many years earlier. The suspension of the TRC quotas was the first signal that the U.S. had peaked. After 1971, even with Texas producing at full capacity, aggregate U.S. production clearly had peaked in 1970-71 and was to go into permanent decline, never reaching that production level again. The below article quotes an unidentified source reportedly close to OPEC (a cartel of oil exporting countries closely modeled after the TRC) that the suspension of OPEC quotas is an option being discussed for next weeks OPEC meeting in Beirut. The fact that OPEC officials are even considering the lifting of quotas should raise eyebrows as it must mean that there's very little spare capacity left. Nobody in OPEC would seriously contemplate suspending quotas if huge amounts of spare capacity still existed because that would most definately result in a total price collapse which would be the last thing the oil sales dependent, heavily indebted OPEC countries economies would need. Because members of OPEC are the swing producers in oil production today, and if the suspension of quotas happens in Beirut next week, I think it would then be almost certain that WORLD OIL PRODUCTION HAS PEAKED!!!
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