Martin Payne

An update is warranted to address comments from friends and followers – comments such as “Gee, I guess Peak Oil has been postponed?”, or “I guess we don’t have to worry about Peak Oil anymore!” Often they have a smile on their face …

The shale oil plays will reduce but not eliminate our reliance on foreign oil. Should a supply disruption occur over the next decade, we will be better off having this production than not. The natural gas and NGL from these plays will provide high-quality, low-carbon heat energy for electricity as well as feedstock for plastics – which could help jumpstart manufacturing.

Overall, these plays don’t solve the much larger issue of Peak Oil, but they do help “buy time.”

Why perennial grains? Primarily to eliminate the fuel, fertilizer and herbicide required for planting, cultivating and growing plants which must be seeded each year – also known as annual crops. And of course there are other reasons why staying out of the pasture would be a good thing – with topsoil loss being chief among them. Essentially all of our current grain crops – wheat, corn, oats, barely, rye, millet – require seedbed preparation, weed control and fertilization in order to become established and yield a crop – all within a few months. The hope is that perennial crops, while they might yield far less, would require a lower energy investment per pound of food produced.

So, what’s the status on this perennial grain effort?

In other words, Mr. Horsnell is saying that since the world previously thought that the Saudi’s were producing less in December than they actually were, then the estimated worldwide “buffer” production capacity was significantly less than believed, as well. Also, his observation that the Saudi’s evidently needed to produce at 9 million b/d in order to balance the market is the exact opposite of what Mr. Naimi said, four weeks later….In turn, if the Saudi’s can’t really sustain even 9 million b/d, then this would have serious implications for the world in that the next, more intense manifestations of Peak Oil may be nearer than we think.

Does the Saudi oil minister’s statement that the oil market is oversupplied make any sense? Saudi production goes down in the face of rising demand, and prices skyrocket, and that shows the market is oversupplied? Wouldn’t prices have dropped drastically during that period if the market had been oversupplied?

Recently, Dr. Robert Hirsch wrote an article titled “Peak oil – what do we do now?”. This brief but content-laden article opined that Peak Oil was essentially past tense, and it correctly implied that little mitigation has taken place, to date…but notably missing was any mention of natural gas.

A visit to Shell’s Perdido Project in the Gulf of Mexico. The spar itself is about the same height as the Eiffel Tower. But even this $3 billion, state-of-the-art, deepwater project can’t begin to replace the declining “giants” like Cantarell, a few hundred miles to the south.