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Peak Oil
Inventor of public key cryptography comments on peak oil, recommends Lovins
Martin Hellman, private communication
Thanks for your site. Nicely done. A link to www.oilendgame.org would probably be helpful. This site discusses Amory Lovins et al’s book “Winning the Oil End Game” which posits a radical, but well-researched plan for getting us off our oil addiction. And the projected cost? Negative! In other words, the book predicts that we can conserve oil and substitute alternative, sustainable fuels at a lower cost than burning the oil. In short, if they are right (and so far my checking on their credibility has given them an A+), this plan makes not only good environmental, but also good business sense. With two highly supportive forewords by George Schultz and the former chairman of Royal Dutch Shell, this approach clearly has appeal beyond the normal environmental community.
If you click on “Read the book” it will take you to a link that allows you to download the entire book (1.9 MB so be patient or get broadband) in PDF format for free.
One other point on “Peak Oil”. In 1998 I became friends with a man who used to be head of world wide E&P for one of the major oil companies and asked him “Ever since I’ve been a kid, I hear that we’re going to run out of oil. And yet, today, we’re using more than ever before [and it was then near $10 a barrel, a local minimum]. What do you think?”
He proceeded to tell me about Hubbert’s prediction for US oil production peaking in the 1970’s, how it was laughed at, but became a reality. He then told me (as your site also does) that the same analysis applied to world wide production predicted a peak sometime in the first decade of the 21st century and that he thought that was realistic. Looks like he was right! I thought this independent input from an “oil man” might be of interest.
Our thinking needs to break out of the rut it’s been caught in for so long, so thanks again for the site.
(4 December 2005)
When we received this email, I thought I recognized the name… Sure enough:
Hellman is best known for his invention, with Diffie and Merkle, of public key cryptography. In addition to many other uses, this technology forms the basis for secure transactions on the Internet.
… Prof. Hellman also has a deep interest in the ethics of technological development. With Prof. Anatoly Gromyko of Moscow, he co-edited Breakthrough: Emerging New Thinking, a book published simultaneously in Russian and English in 1987 during the rapid change in Soviet-American relations. He also worked to develop an environment within the university within which students of diverse backgrounds could function to the best of their ability.
(from Hellman’s site)
Thank you, Professor Hellman!
Winning the Oil End Game by Amory Lovins can be downloaded from www.oilendgame.org.
-BA
Pemex exclusive ‘We are in the middle of Hubbert’s curve’
OilCast.com #28
This bumper 28 minute show breaks an exclusive interview with a senior engineer from Mexican state oil company Pemex, who says “the days of the Mexican super giants are over.”
He claims Pemex is in the “doorway of depletion” and “in the middle of the Hubbert curve.” Hear this amazing interview online now…
We also talk to Bruce Evers of Investec and Frederic Lasserre of Societe Generale on the current mini bear market, record short positions, warm weather in the USA and American `demand destruction`. What is it that is driving prices back down into the mid fifty dollar range?
(30 November 2005)
Commentary at The Oil Drum.
Only conservation efforts will keep a lid on energy costs: IEA
Patrick Brethour, Globe & Mail
CALGARY — Growing output from Canada’s oil sands is helping to put a ceiling on crude prices for now, but only a global conservation effort will keep energy costs from spiralling upward in coming years, says a senior official of the International Energy Agency.
“It plays a very important role in international oil diplomacy,” said Fatih Birol, chief economist at the IEA, an offshoot of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. “It plays the role of a cap in lots of the discussions.”
Mr. Birol was in Calgary yesterday to meet with the heads of Canadian energy companies and financial institutions, part of a worldwide tour after the release of the IEA’s Global Energy Outlook last month.
The rise in Canadian production, in essence, has strengthened the hand of the consumer nations that make up the OECD in its continual jousting with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
But the increase in synthetic oil output from the bitumen sands of northern Alberta will not be enough to counterbalance the rising influence of producers in the Middle Ea
(3 December 2005)
ASPO USA Denver World Oil Conference Highlights, Day 2
Global Public Media
Highlights from Day 2 of the Denver World Oil Conference, sponsored by ASPO-USA, November 10 & 11 in Denver Colorado. Speakers include Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper, Tom Petrie of Petrie Parkman & Co., Roger Bezdek, President of MISI, Charles T. Maxwell of Weedon & Co., Congressman Roscoe Bartlett and many others.
(11 November 2005)
Also just posted:
Roger Bezdek ASPO Denver Presentation Highlights
Charles Maxwell ASPO Denver Presentation Highlights
Couple take reins in world oil crisis
Julie Makarewicz, The Grand Rapids Press
WAYLAND — One couple is taking it upon themselves to find out more about the world oil situation and what can be done about it. Aaron Wissner, a Wayland Middle School teacher, and his wife, Kimberly Sager, are worried about world oil production and the impact it is having here.
So, the Barry County couple decided to get involved. For starters, they attended the World Oil Conference, sponsored by the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, in Denver.
At their home, Wissner and his wife have installed new window treatments and new lights and are planning to add solar panels.
“My feeling coming away from this is one of urgency,” Wissner said.
(1 December 2005)
