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Part I: Planning for a Climate-Changed World
David Talbot, Technology Review (MIT)
As the global picture grows grimmer, states and cities are searching for the fine-scale predictions they need to prepare for emergencies–and to keep the faucets running.
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…part of the problem is that well-documented predictions about planetary change haven’t generally been broken down in local terms. Though the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded with 90 percent certainty that human activity is warming the planet–and spelled out the likelihood of consequences that include higher seas, droughts, and fiercer storms–the United States is committing scant resources to providing usable information to the people who respond to emergencies, plan for urban development, manage coastal areas, and make sure the crops keep growing and the reservoirs stay full.
“The challenge is to increase our capability to accurately forecast climate at the regional level,” says Ronald Prinn, an atmospheric scientist who directs the Center for Global Change Science at MIT. “That is what is needed in order to improve the information that government agencies get–[and] to then translate those regional forecasts into something useful at the city [or] state level.”
Equipping people to deal with climate change could mean simply giving state and local planners access to a wealth of existing information–such as calculations made by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) that could indicate how far inland storm surges would move if sea levels were higher. But it will also mean sharpening local and regional models, so that they can predict the effects of climate change in far greater geographic detail. And it will require new approaches to emergency planning, water-supply management, and more.
(May/June 2007)
Deforestation: The hidden cause of global warming
Daniel Howden, The Independent (UK)
In the next 24 hours, deforestation will release as much CO2 into the atmosphere as 8 million people flying from London to New York. Stopping the loggers is the fastest and cheapest solution to climate change. So why are global leaders turning a blind eye to this crisis?
The accelerating destruction of the rainforests that form a precious cooling band around the Earth’s equator, is now being recognised as one of the main causes of climate change. Carbon emissions from deforestation far outstrip damage caused by planes and automobiles and factories.
The rampant slashing and burning of tropical forests is second only to the energy sector as a source of greenhouses gases according to report published today by the Oxford-based Global Canopy Programme, an alliance of leading rainforest scientists.
(14 May 2007)
Also at Common Dreams
Climate change to force mass migration
John Vidal, The Guardian
A billion people – one in seven people on Earth today – could be forced to leave their homes over the next 50 years as the effects of climate change worsen an already serious migration crisis, a new report from Christian Aid predicts.
The report, which is based on latest UN population and climate change figures, says conflict, large-scale development projects and widespread environmental deterioration will combine to make life unsupportable for hundreds of millions of people, mostly in the Sahara belt, south Asia and the Middle East.
(14 May 2007)
Related from AFP.
Mayors think green at N.Y. summit
Ron Scherer, Christian Science Monitor
Leaders of the world’s biggest cities, which produce the most greenhouse gases, explore how to cut emissions.
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The mayor of Austin, Texas, wants to find out how other cities are reducing traffic congestion. Seattle’s mayor would like to know how metropolises outside the United States are tackling the issue of climate change. And the mayor of Salt Lake City is keenly interested in emerging technology to reduce greenhouse gases.
Starting Monday, they will get some of their questions answered when 29 other big-city mayors from around the globe arrive in New York to discuss what urban areas can do about climate change.
Many of the mayors will participate in panels to discuss their home-grown solutions. Some of them will visit model projects, such as “green” skyscrapers and solar-powered boats. They will also rub elbows with former President Clinton and high-powered business executives whose companies have made a commitment to reduce their carbon emissions. Most important, the mayors will talk about ways to set an example for other urban areas – since cities consume 75 percent of the world’s energy.
(14 May 2007)
Related from AFP: World’s city mayors eye climate change at New York summit.
Fourth Assessment Report (WG III AR4) – Mitigation of Climate Change
Working Group III, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
This volume analyses mitigation options for the main economic sectors in the near-term. It provides information on long-term mitigation strategies for various stabilization levels, paying special attention to implications of different short-term strategies for achieving long-term goals. It also addresses the relationship between mitigation and sustainable development.
Currently available: Summary for Policymakers [PDF]
The Chapters of the report and the Technical Summary in a pre-copy edit version will be available on this website around the middle of May 2007
The publication of the printed version of the Working Group III report is expected in October 2007. The report will be published by Cambridge University Press.
(May 2007)
Thanks to Carl Etnier for sharing this with us.
U.S. Aims to Weaken G-8 Climate Change Statement
Juliet Eilperin, Washington Post
Negotiators from the United States are trying to weaken the language of a climate change declaration set to be unveiled at next month’s G-8 summit of the world’s leading industrial powers, according to documents obtained yesterday by The Washington Post.
A draft proposal dated April 2007 that is being debated in Bonn, Germany, this weekend by senior officials of the Group of Eight includes a pledge to limit the global temperature rise this century to 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, as well as an agreement to reduce worldwide greenhouse gas emissions to 50 percent below 1990 levels by 2050.
The United States is seeking to strike that section, the documents show.
(13 May 2007)
Also at Common Dreams. Related article from the BBC.
