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Post Carbon Newsletter #19 September 2006
Post Carbon Institute
1. Relocalization Network update
2. Oil Depletion Protocol update: Australia
3. Energy Farm update from Vancouver
4. New Stories on Global Public Media
5. Featured Post Carbon Group: Relocalisation Works in the Burnett Inland (RWBI)
It starts to look like a plateau
Rune in Norway, Energy Resources
The blogspot energikrise.blogspot.com recently posted updated diagrams for the development in world oil supplies (believed to be all liquids) based upon data from EIA Petroleum International Monthly for October 2006 which includes data as of July 2006.
The data from EIA shows that the world supplies of oil were down with an average of 0,18 Mb/d for the 7 first months of 2006 relative to the same period of 2005, and that the supplies of regular oil and lease condensate so far still had a top back in December 2005.
For the last 22 months (September 2004 – July 2006) the arithmetic average for oil supplies was 84,25 Mb/d, and supplies have been running within 1 % of this average for these months.
OPEC (the second diagram) supplies (oil, lease condensate and NGL’s) have so far had a top back in September 2005.
OPEC supplies (oil, lease condensate and NGL’s) are down 0,29 Mb/d for the 7 first months of 2006 compared to the same period of 2005.
(1 Oct 2006)
Analysis from India: Is the world about to run out of oil?
S C N Jatar, Business Standard (India) via rediff
…Oil peaking could cost the world economy dearly. Aggressive, appropriately timed fuel efficiency and substitute fuel production could provide substantial mitigation. Peaking of world oil production presents the world with an unprecedented risk-management problem.
As peaking approaches, liquid fuel prices and price volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation, the economic, social and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable mitigation options, involving literally trillions of dollars and requiring more than a decade of intense effort, exist on both the supply and demand sides.
…Conclusion
First, India must work out the EROEI before venturing into additives.
Second, as no fuel in sight could fairly substitute liquid hydrocarbons (60 to 80 per cent of hydrocarbons use is for transportation), conservation and research in alternate fuels need precedence.
Third, India should initiate studies for oil price and oil demand forecasting for the next two decades.
Last, peaking is bound to occur; the question is of timing. India should commence preparations to mitigate peaking immediately.
(30 Sept 2006)
A refreshing no-nonsense summary. -BA
Heinberg interview (Audio)
Marc Strassman, Etopia Media
Peak oil educator Richard Heinberg talks about peak oil, The Party’s Over, Powerdown, The Oil Depletion Protocol, and the ASPO-USA 2006 Boston World Oil Conference, “Time for Action: A Midnight Ride for Peak Oil,” scheduled for October 26-27, 2006, in Boston, Massachusetts
(3 Oct 2006)
