Emmanuel Fruchard

Oil prices: Wild 2008 ends with mild contango

Spot prices finish the end very low, but what about the long end of the curve, where market practitioners reflect their medium term expectation of the oil buy / sell balance?

Some would say the curve is in deep contango (i.e. future prices are higher than the spot), reflecting a strong expectation that prices will resume their upward movement as soon as the crisis is less severe.

Does that mean more market players are convinced by peak oil?

January 6, 2009

Peak oil acceptance on its way in financial markets

Financial markets had not reflected peak oil in crude oil forward prices. In the past week the long end of the curve has drifted up dramatically.
Can we say that the market at last believes in peak oil? This article suggests a quantitative way to answer the question.

May 22, 2008

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