Building a world of
resilient communities.

World Oil Production at 3/31/2014-Where are We Headed?

The standard way to make forecasts of almost anything is to look at recent trends and assume that this trend will continue, at least for the next several years.

Debt: Eight Reasons This Time is Different

Academic researchers Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff have become famous for their book This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly and their earlier paper This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises. Their point, of course, is that the same thing happens over and over again. We can learn from past crises to solve our current problems.

Why Standard Economic Models Don't Work--Our Economy is a Network

With diminishing returns, the economy is, in effect, becoming less and less efficient, instead of becoming more and more efficient.

IEA Investment Report - Stumbling on the Real Story

What the IEA has inadvertently stumbled upon is the reason why oil limits are a problem...It looks like there are plenty of resources available and plenty of ways to reduce energy use through mitigation. In fact, it becomes to impossible to finance everything that needs to be done.

Converging Energy Crises - And How our Current Situation Differs from the Past

At the Age of Limits Conference, I gave a talk called Converging Crises, talking about the crises facing us as we reach energy limits. In this post, I discuss some highlights from a fairly long talk.

The Connection Between Oil Prices, Debt Levels, and Interest Rates

If oil is “just another commodity,” then there shouldn’t be any connection between oil prices, debt levels, interest rates, and total rates of return. But there clearly is a connection.

Reasons for our Energy Predicament – An Overview

Ultimately, the issue is that to extract oil or any fossil fuel, we have to keep the financial and political systems together. These systems can be expected to fail, far before we run out of oil in the ground.

Beginning of the End? Oil Companies Cut Back on Spending

Steve Kopits recently gave a presentation explaining our current predicament: the cost of oil extraction has been rising rapidly (10.9% per year) but oil prices have been flat.

Limits to Growth–At our doorstep, but not recognized

How long can economic growth continue in a finite world? This is the question the 1972 book The Limits to Growth by Donella Meadows and others sought to answer.

Why EIA, IEA, and Randers’ 2052 Energy Forecasts are Wrong

What is correct way to model the future course of energy and the economy?...With different approaches, researchers can obtain vastly different indications. I will show that the real issue is most researchers are modeling the wrong limit.
MORE ARTICLES +