Building a world of
resilient communities.

Nine Reasons Why Low Oil Prices May “Morph” Into Something Much Worse

Why are commodity prices, including oil prices, lagging? Ultimately, the question comes back to, “Why isn’t the world economy making very many of the end products that use these commodities?”

What Greece, Cyprus, and Puerto Rico Have in Common

We all know one thing that Greece, Cyprus, and Puerto Rico have in common–severe financial problems. There is something else that they have in common–a high proportion of their energy use is from oil.

BP Data Suggests We Are Reaching Peak Energy Demand

The real situation is that we right now seem to be reaching peak energy demand through low commodity prices. I see evidence of this in the historical energy data recently updated by BP...

Why EIA, IEA, and BP Oil Forecasts are Too High

EIA, IEA, and BP forecasts miss the issue of low prices, and what they do to the possibility of future oil production. We get lulled into thinking that current prices are almost high enough, but they really are not. Companies really need to have enough funds on a cash flow basis, and on this basis they seem to need about $130 per barrel now, and more later. The likelihood of getting prices up …

Cuba: Figuring Out Pieces of the Puzzle

Cuba is an unusual country that has been followed by many peak oilers. I recently visited there. I also followed my usual practice of looking up data from Internet sources about what is happening. I summarize my findings in this article.

Why We Have an Oversupply of Almost Everything (Oil, labor, capital, etc.)

Glut of Capital and Labor Challenge Policy Makers: Global oversupply extends beyond commodities, elevating deflation risk. To me, this is a very serious issue, quite likely signaling that we are reaching what has been called Limits to Growth...

Putting the Real Story of Energy and the Economy Together

 What is the real story of energy and the economy? We hear two predominant energy stories.  

The oil glut and low prices reflect an affordability problem

For a long time, there has been a belief that the decline in oil supply will come by way of high oil prices. Demand will exceed supply. It seems to me that this view is backward–the decline in supply will come through low oil prices.

The Problem of Debt as We Reach Oil Limits

Many readers have asked me to explain debt. They also ask: Why can’t we just cancel debt and start over? if we are reaching oil limits, and these limits threaten to destabilize the system.

Charts showing the long-term GDP-energy tie

In Part 1 of this series, I talked about why cheap fuels act to create economic growth. In this post, we will look at some supporting data showing how this connection works.